Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the big picture with Manning and Buchanan

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ANALYSIS: By Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning at Evening Report

In this A View From Afar podcast, political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan and Selwyn Manning deep dive into the big picture that hangs over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

That big picture has many aspects to it, and as such any resolution to the atrocities being committed in Ukraine will likely be weighed against what is a challenge to the international law and rules-based order.

In a previous episode in this series, Dr Buchanan and Manning examined how the world was transitioning into a democracies versus authoritarian bipolarity.

This episode continues in that theme, but digs down into how descendent powers, or nations, tend to create or become entrenched in wars, and how Russia, in 2022, fits this pattern.

And, there are comparisons to global Western powers too.

But this episode goes further. It examines how transitional international moments, conflict as a systems regulator, can move to counter Russia.

In 2022, the United Nations Security Council, due to the P5 nations having veto powers, appears no longer fit for purpose.

A UN-led multilateral response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unlikely.

Frustrated by Russia
The UN General Assembly appears frustrated by Russia’s refusal to acknowledge the combined insistence of the UNGA that it cease its war against Ukraine.

Against this backdrop, NATO, at this juncture, cannot directly defend Ukrainians as Ukraine was not able to become a NATO member state before Russia invaded its territory.

Sometimes rules and law provide security and stability in the world. And sometimes, as seen in 2022, it permits conflict to burn on.

As discussed, the global rules-based order is fast changing in 2022. And as such, this underscores a need to re-set the international system.

But what can be done to stop people from being killed in this unprovoked war – a war that in many ways illustrates a wider war between democracies and authoritarians, as the world transitions toward a new bipolarity?

And, if a global order reset is needed, what would that reset look like?

These are huge challenges that require sensible analysis.

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