Final NZ election poll one day before vote points to Labour-Green win

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1 News Colmar Brunton poll
The result last night of the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll - Labour still well out in front with a slight dip. Image: RNZ/Twitter

By RNZ News

The last opinion poll before Saturday’s general election on Saturday last night put Labour on 46 percent and National on 31 percent. Both are down 1 percent.

Behind is ACT on 8 percent and the Green Party on 8 percent, up two.

New Zealand First is up on 3 percent, according to the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll.

NZ Elections
NZ ELECTIONS 2020 – 17 October

It would mean Labour would get 59 seats, 40 for National, 11 for the Greens and 10 for ACT. Labour would need the Green Party to form a government on these results.

 

In the preferred prime minister stakes, Jacinda Ardern is on 55 percent and Judith Collins is on 20 percent.

More than 1.5 million people have already voted.

The poll was conducted by landline and mobile phone between October 10-14.

What the commentators think
Former National MP Jonathan Coleman thinks Labour will not be pleased with the result.

“I think people might be quite surprised they have gone to 46 percent,” he said.

New Zealand First’s slight increase might “make things interesting”.

“New Zealand First voters might be the sort of people who don’t necessarily tell pollsters how they are going to vote, so I wouldn’t say this is exactly how it’s exactly going to play out on election night.”

But former Green Party policy director, now consultant, David Cormack, said today’s results were “effectively an exit poll”.

“We’ve had such a large chunk of the electorate already vote, so I think this is going to be the most accurate representation of what is going to be the final result.”

Coleman said polls had been incorrect in the past, but Cormack said this was best poll he had seen in a long time.

‘Terrifying scenario’
“We get out of the terrifying scenario of Labour governing alone. The Greens look well comfortable.”

Coleman thinks opposition leader Judith Collins has done an excellent job with the leadership of National.

“Judith has an opinion and many people will back her on that. She’s had to make some calls, I think at times she’s been let down by people on her team who should have backed her up.

“They should have at least stayed quiet because that’s what you do. You back the leader if you want to win.”

Cormack is standing by his call that NZ First will be gone at the election.

But Coleman said Winston Peters had surprised in the past and said there could be twists and turns before the election results were known.

The previous political poll – published by 1 News Colmar Brunton on October 8 – had support for Labour steady on 47 percent, National on 32, ACT on 8, the Greens on 6 and NZ First on 2.

This article is republished by the Pacific Media Centre under a partnership agreement with RNZ.

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