OPINION: By Martyn Bradbury, editor of The Daily Blog
Any suggestion – such as by much of the mainstream media – that the Labour Party is just going to roll over and allow NZ First to go to National to form a government coalition in New Zealand without a fight is utterly wrong.
Labour is in this to win and they want to negotiate a new government.
Columnist Chris Trotter puts the chances of a change of government after Saturday’s election at 25 percent. I think he’s wrong; I put the chance of a change at 50 percent.
I think a lot of pessimism from the Left on social media is due to widespread confusion about how MMP works – Lab+NZF+GP is the majority.
After specials, Lab+NZF+GP could = 63 seats – fight for change, don’t drown in self-defeat!
If the Left on social media understood how close we could be to a victory after specials are counted they wouldn’t be so miserable.
Firstly, this will take a month. Specials won’t be counted for another fortnight, and then it will be at least two weeks of negotiations after that.
If anyone thinks this is being sorted by the weekend are completely wrong. We all need to calm down and allow our democratic system to process the result from election night.
Here are the 10 reasons why, in my opinion, there will be a Labour-NZ First-Green government:
- Specials will give the Greens and Labour an extra MP each, which will take a Labour-NZ First-Green majority to 63 seats, that’s a working majority.
- The Left’s “3 headed monster” is not worse than the Right’s “4 headed monster” that has run the country for last 9 years.
- When National Party supporters scream they have the majority, here are the facts:
Centre right (Nat+Act+UF+Cons)
2008: 49.45 percent
2011: 48.98 percent
2014: 51.92 percent
2017: 46.86 percent (will come down further when special votes are counted)
- National’s relationship and total capitulation to Chinese business interests bonds Labour and NZ First. How mass immigration has impacted Labour’s vote in Auckland will also raise eyebrows between Labour and NZ First.
- NZ First wants macro economic change that only Labour can give them.
- The Greens have a blueprint for environmental transformation that NZ First and Labour need to be credible on the environment.
- The Greens also have the blueprint for social welfare reform that will benefit the poorest which directly impacts the quality of life for many NZ First and Labour voters without the political risk for NZ First and Labour.
- Labour leader Jacinda Ardern is in this to win this.
- Winston wants legacy, not National Party bribes.
- Labour’s Māori strategy mastermind Willie Jackson’s close personal friendship with Winston Peters is Labour’s secret weapon.
Asia Pacific Report has a shared publishing arrangement with The Daily Blog.