By Mark Rabago of RNZ Pacific
A US foreign policy think tank is proposing a major shift in America’s military strategy in Asia that would put Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and other Pacific islands at the centre of Washington’s regional military posture.
Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank, said the US should move much of its military presence away from the “first island chain”, including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and concentrate more forces along the more distant “second island chain”.
The proposal identifies Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands as locations where US forces could be positioned farther from China’s coastline.
Under the proposed strategy, Tinian in the CNMI could become one of several smaller air bases used to disperse US personnel and military assets across the Pacific.
In an explainer titled A second island chain strategy for Asia, Defense Priorities researcher Jennifer Kavanagh said the US already has at least 8000 military personnel along the second island chain, most of them on Guam.
Rather than significantly increasing that number, the think tank proposes spreading personnel across Guam, Palau, the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia and smaller airfields such as Tinian.
It said these locations could host intelligence and combat-support units, air defenses, drones and small groups of Marines equipped with mobile anti-ship missiles.
Specialised planes
The strategy also calls for fighter aircraft and other specialised planes to operate from the second island chain, while submarines would remain based on Guam and naval vessels would rotate through the region.
Defense Priorities argues that shifting forces farther from China’s coastline would make US bases more survivable while reducing the risk of Washington becoming involved in a major conflict with Beijing.
Guam would remain an important logistics hub and base for long-range military assets, but spreading forces across the wider Pacific could make the US military less dependent on the island.
The proposal comes as the US military is already investing in infrastructure in the Northern Marianas, including facilities on Tinian to support increased military operations.
But the Defense Priorities proposal goes much further than expanding military infrastructure in the Pacific.
It calls for the United States to eventually end its mutual defence alliances with South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and Japan and replace them with narrower security partnerships.
It also recommends Washington adopt an explicit policy of non-intervention over Taiwan.
The think tank proposes removing most US Army and Marine Corps deployments from Asia and significantly reducing American air and naval forces in the region.
Defense Priorities said the changes could be phased in over three to eight years, with most completed by 2030 and the transition finalised by 2035.
It argues that concentrating a smaller US military presence farther east would continue to protect American access to Asian markets and trade routes without maintaining large forces close to China.
The recommendations are those of Defense Priorities and do not represent an announced change in US government or Pentagon policy.
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