By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk
New Caledonia’s population has shrunk to 264,596 over the past six years, the latest census, conducted in April and May 2025, has revealed.
This compares to the previous census, conducted in 2019, which recorded a population of 271,400 in the French Pacific territory.
To explain the population drop of almost seven thousand (6811), Jean Philippe Grouthier, Census Chef de Mission at the French national statistical institute INSEE, said that even though the population natural balance (the difference between births and deaths during the period) was more than 11,000, the net migration balance showed a deficit of 18,000.
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In terms of permanent departures and arrivals, earlier informal studies (based on the international Nouméa-La Tontouta airport traffic figures) already hinted at a sharp increase in residents leaving New Caledonia for good, after the destructive and deadly riots that erupted in May 2014, causing 14 dead and over 2 billion euros (NZ$3.8 billion) in damages.
The census was originally scheduled to take place in 2024, but had to be postponed due to the civil unrest.
“New Caledonia is probably less attractive than it could have been in the 2000s and 2010s years,” Grouthier told local media yesterday.
However, he stressed that the downward trend was already there at the previous 2019 census.
‘Not entirely due to riots’
During the 2014-2019 period, a net balance of around then 1000 residents had already left New Caledonia.
“It’s not as if it was something that would be entirely due to the May 2024 riots,” he said.
At the provincial level, New Caledonia’s most populated region (194,978), the Southern Province, which makes up three quarters of the population, has registered the sharpest drop (about four percent).
Meanwhile, the other two provinces (North, Loyalty Islands) have slightly gained in population over the same period, respectively +2.1 (50,947) and +1.7 percent (18,671).
The preliminary figures released yesterday are now to be processed and analysed in detail, before public release, ISEE said.
The latest population statistics are regarded as essential in order to serve as the basis for further calculation for the three provinces’ share in public aid as well as planning for upgrades or building of public infrastructure.
The latest count will also be used to organise upcoming elections, starting with municipal elections (March 2026) and provincial elections later that year.
