The Gaza ceasefire deal proves that Israeli politics can only survive if it’s engaged in perpetual war.
COMMENTARY: By Abdelhalim Abdelrahman
US President Donald Trump has unsettled Arab leaders with his obscene suggestion that Egypt and Jordan absorb Palestinians from Gaza.
Both Egypt and Jordan have stated that this is a non-starter and will not happen.
Israeli extremists have welcomed Trump’s comments with the hope that the forced expulsion of Palestinians would pave the way for Jewish settlements in Gaza.
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But the truth is that Israeli leaders likely feel deceived by Trump more than anything else. Benjamin Netanyahu and most of Israeli society were once clamouring for Donald Trump.
All that has changed since President Trump sent his top Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to Israel in which Witkoff reportedly lambasted Benjamin Netanyahu and forced him to accept a ceasefire agreement.
Since then, Israeli leaders and Israeli society, are seemingly taken aback by Trump’s more restrained approach toward the Middle East and desire for a ceasefire.
While the current ceasefire in place is a precarious endeavour at best, Israeli reactions to the cessation of hostilities highlight a profound point: not only did Netanyahu misread Trump’s intentions, but the entire Israeli political system itself seemingly only thrives during conflict in which the US provides it with unfettered military and diplomatic support.
Geostrategic calculus
Firstly, Israel believed that Trump’s second term would likely be a continuation of his first — where the US based its geostrategic calculus in the Middle East around Israel’s interests. This gave Israeli leaders the impression that Trump would give them the green light to attack Iran, resettle and starve Gaza, and formally annex the West Bank.
However, Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist ilk failed to take into consideration that Trump likely views blanket Israeli interests as liabilities to both the United States and Trump’s vision for the Middle East.
Trump blessing an Israel-Iran showdown seems to be off the table. Trump himself stated this and is backing up his words by appointing Washington-based analyst Mike DiMino as a top Department of Defence advisor.
DiMino, a former fellow at the non-interventionist think tank Defense Priorities, is against war with Iran and has been highly critical of US involvement in the Middle East. Steve Witkoff will also be leading negotiations with Iran.
The appointment of DiMino and Witkoff has enraged the Washington neoconservative establishment and is a signal to Tel Aviv that Trump will not capitulate to Israel’s hawkish ambitions.
The Trump effect
As it pertains to his vision for the Middle East, Trump has been adamant about expanding the Abraham Accords, deepening US military ties with Saudi Arabia, and possibly pioneering Saudi-Israeli “normalisation”.
The Saudi government has condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza, calling it a genocide and also made it clear that they will not normalise relations with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state.
While there is an explicit pro-Israel angle to all these components, none of Trump’s objectives for the Middle East would be feasible if the genocide in Gaza continued or if the US allowed Israel to formally annex the occupied West Bank, something Trump stopped during his first term.
It is unlikely that a Palestinian state will arise under Trump’s administration; however, Trump has been in contact with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas.
Trump’s Middle East Adviser Massad Boulos has also facilitated talks between Abbas and Trump. Steve Witkoff has also met with PA official Hussein al-Sheikh in Saudi Arabia to discuss where the PA fits into a post-October 7 Gaza and a possible pathway to a Palestinian state.
Witkoff’s willingness to meet with PA, along with the quiet yet growing relationship between Trump and Abbas, was likely something Netanyahu did not anticipate and may have also factored into Netanyahu’s acquiescence in Gaza.
Of equal importance, the Gaza ceasefire deal proves that Israeli politics can only survive if it’s engaged in perpetual war.
Brutal occupation
This is evidenced by its brutal occupation of the Palestinians, destroying Gaza, and attacking its neighbours in Syria and Lebanon. Now that Israel is forced to stop its genocide in Gaza, at least for the time being, fissures within the Israeli government are already growing.
Jewish extremist Itamar Ben Gvir resigned from Netanyahu’s coalition due to the ceasefire after serving as Israel’s national security minister. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also threatened to leave if a ceasefire was enacted.
Such dynamics within the Israeli government and its necessity for conflict are only possible because the US allows it to happen.
In providing Israel with unfettered military and diplomatic support, the US allows Israel to torment the Palestinian people. Now that Israel cannot punish Gaza, it has shifted their focus to the West Bank.
Since the ceasefire’s implementation, the Israeli army has engaged in deadly raids in the Jenin refugee camp which had displaced over 2000 Palestinians. The Israeli army has also imposed a complete siege on the West Bank, shutting down checkpoints to severely restrict the movement of Palestinians.
All of Israel’s genocidal practices are a direct result of the impunity granted to them by the Biden administration; who willingly refused to impose any consequences for Israel’s blatant violation of US law.
Joe Biden could have enforced either the Leahy Law or Section 620 I of the Foreign Assistance Act at any time, which would ban weapons from flowing to Israel due to their impediment of humanitarian aid into Gaza and use of US weapons to facilitate grave human rights abuses in Gaza.
Instead, he chose to undermine US laws to ensure that Israel had everything it facilitate their mass slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.
The United States has always held all the cards when it comes to Israel’s hawkish political composition. Israel was simply the executioner of the US’s devastating policies towards Gaza and the broader Palestinian national movement.
Abdelhalim Abdelrahman is a freelance Palestinian journalist. His work has appeared in The New Arab, The Hill, MSN, and La Razon. Tis article was first published by The New Arab and is republished under Creative Commons.
