A senior French military commander says France should re-arm in the Pacific and consider restoring its forces to a level of 30 years ago.

Rear Admiral Jean-Mathieu Rey told Tahiti-infos on the eve of Bastille Day that France had to look at going back to being better armed ships with sonars, torpedoes, guns, and missiles.

Reacting to alarm in the region over the security pact between China and Solomon Islands, Rey said France wanted to be a power of balance amid the rivalry between the United States and China.

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Rey said while nothing had happened yet, there was a risk that China could try to have a military installation in Solomon Islands, although Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has reassured the Pacific Islands Forum in Suva this week that this would not happen.

Rey said that, if necessary, France opposed illegal actions by China, but maintained a dialogue with it.

Maintaining ‘a balance’
The commander said France would continue to maintain a balance by refusing the logic of the two blocs, which could lead to conflict.

In June, then French Overseas Minister Sébastien Lecornu said two new patrol boats would be deployed this year, one in New Caledonia and one in French Polynesia for what he described as surveillance and sovereignty missions.

Lecornu also said this year an exercise would be held involving Rafale fighter jets and A400 transport planes.

He said the challenges posed by geopolitical rivalries in a multi-polar region could only be the subject of an inclusive and multilateral response based on respect for the law.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

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Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong was no doubt expecting a cooler reception than her three previous visits to the Pacific when she touched down in Honiara last Friday.

The Solomon Islands government website had not even listed the Australian minister’s visit — but it did note the first visit of a Saudi Arabian tourism minister, happening the same day.

With this visit, Wong walked a diplomatic tightrope that no senior minister in the previous government appeared willing to.

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Solomon Islands leaders have had a very crowded schedule of late, as highlighted by the Solomon Star newspaper. It said Wong was the latest foreign figure to arrive on Solomon Island shores after a number of “high-level visits from USA, Japan and China recently, before and after the signing of the security pact”.

ABC News on Wong’s visit to Solomon Islands. Video: ABC

The security pact in question is the one signed on April 20 between China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, and Solomon Islands’ foreign minister, Jeremiah Manele.

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare explained the riots of November 2021 left his government with “no option” but to enter into such a security agreement to “plug the gaps that exist in our security agreement with Australia”. What these “gaps” are, he did not say.

Since that signing, the entire Pacific has shifted in myriad ways. Wong has been very busy in her first month in office trying to reduce its impact.

She has had some wins with Fiji, Samoa and Tonga. Also, Australia assisted with the rapprochement at the Pacific Islands Forum, which has emerged reinvigorated after the stress test of the past year, when one-third of the members threatened to leave.

This was averted with a special meeting in Suva on June 7, with Micronesian leaders transported to it on Australian aircraft.

The biggest win so far, for which Wong can take some credit, was for her work in advance of the Pacific Islands Forum meeting on May 30. Here, the ten nations that recognise China did not collectively sign on to become “China-Pacific Island countries”. (Federated States of Micronesia President David Panuleo rallied the region with a stirring letter that instantly became a classic text.)

A whirlwind multi-nation visit by Wang before and after the May 30 meeting added inducements for working more closely with China through numerous bilateral agreements.

Wang spent the most time on his trip in the Solomon Islands. The effect of his effusive welcome by Sogavare, encapsulated in the photograph of the pair linking arms, denoted the “iron-clad” ties the two leaders were cementing between their nations.

In addition to the game-changing Framework Security Agreement, the Solomon Islands and China “achieved eight-point consensus” during Wang’s visit.

This is a template agreement Wang has already shopped around Asia in 2021, tweaked for national specificities and concerns. In the case of the Solomon Islands, it mentions working together on “climate change” and “marine protection”.

Given all that China has offered Sogavare and his political allies — to the great detriment of the nation according to Opposition Leader Matthew Wale, who has charged the security deal is “a personal deal to protect the prime minister” — what could Penny Wong offer?

On her visits to Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, not being a member of the Morrison government that clung to its coal power and climate policies gave Wong a lot of mileage. This is the most important issue facing the region, recently reiterated in an impassioned speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue by Fiji’s minister for defence and policing, Inia Bakikoto Seruiratu.

The Solomon Islands is no exception.

That said, not being a Morrison government minister did not get Wong very far in Honiara. As she had signalled she would, Wong announced more vaccines donations and an expansion of the very popular (and desperately needed) labour scheme, the topic on which she got the most questions at her press conference.

She also visited a school and lunched with women leaders, who would have raised the dire need for improved medical facilities. Notably, it seems Wong did not meet Wale and other Sogavare opponents.

Very subtly, Wong presented an alternative to the China path. Unlike Wang’s visit, which greatly restricted press coverage, Wong encouraged it, no doubt hoping word would spread as it reportedly had in other parts of the Pacific.

A little story about Penny Wong’s recent visit to Fiji.
I was sitting on remote Kavewa Island, six cups of kava deep, and one of the men taps me on the shoulder.
He says “Nicki” (they were calling me Nicki) “your lady minister came here yeah?”
“Penny Wong?” I said. “She did” 1/

— Nick Sas (@Sasbites) June 15, 2022

But what about “our shared security interests”, as Wong termed it? This got little traction in Honiara as Sogavare will not walk back from the China-Solomon Islands agreement.

On the election campaign trail, Wong described the pact as “the worst foreign policy blunder since World War Two”.

Many anticipate China will build a naval base, as appears to be happening in Cambodia. However, Sogavare has assured Wong, and others, this will not occur.

What may happen is that maritime militias appearing as fishing vessels, which China has used to great effect in the South China Sea, will slowly build a China military presence if there is not a change of leadership and direction in the Solomon Islands.

The recent “dangerous” confrontation between a Chinese fighter jet and an Australian airforce plane in the South China Sea on May 26, the day Wong began her visit to Fiji, is another sobering instance of tactics that might move south.

While Wong’s visit did not deliver big wins, it did not make things worse.

She got reassurances, but given what Sogavare has signed onto with China of late, there is a clear lack of connection between words and deeds. What Wong did do is signal another way forward for Sogavare’s considerable opposition.

In the coming week, a multilateral Pacific Islands effort will be announced in Washington DC that involves the US, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and France.

Given this, it is almost certain that the tempo of visits to the Solomon Islands and other Pacific nations is going to rise.

Dr Patricia A. O’Brien is a faculty member, Asian Studies Program, Georgetown University; visiting fellow, Department of Pacific Affairs, Australian National University; adjunct fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC., Georgetown University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

Aotearoa New Zealand’s Pacific Minister Aupito William Sio is set to travel to Fiji tomorrow, while Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta is under increased pressure over Pacific relationships.

Sio, who is also associate foreign affairs minister, will travel to Fiji from tomorrow to meet with Pacific ministers, and return on Saturday.

He said he would be discussing shared concerns with other large ocean states, aiming to build and strengthen relationships after the Our Ocean Conference in Palau in March.

• READ MORE: Other China in the Pacific reports

“The Pacific is central to the lives, cultures and well-being of Aotearoa New Zealand and our Pacific whanau, aiga, kainga, kopu tangata, and fanau. At the Our Ocean Conference, I encouraged progress on issues such as the conservation of our marine environments and the sustainable use of ocean resources, and I intend to continue these dialogues during my visit,” he said in a statement.

He will also meet with Fiji’s minister of health.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta has been under increasing pressure over New Zealand’s approach to the Pacific as China’s own Foreign Minister Wang Yi toured eight Pacific countries.

Wang secured co-operation agreements with Samoa and Kiribati after officially signing a security agreement with the Solomon Islands.

Greater US attention
The United States has also been turning increased attention to the region, setting up the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework with 12 other countries including New Zealand.

China was unable to get its broader regional agreement signed by Pacific countries, however, and Mahuta said that reflected the Pacific’s view that regional measures should be discussed at a regional level — and she believed that would be discussed at the upcoming Pacific Islands Forum in July.

Mahuta has faced questions over why her Chinese counterpart was was able to do a full tour of the Pacific before she could, and this morning told reporters New Zealand’s relationship with the Pacific was very good, and in good shape.

“In fact the Pacific rely on us to be consistent, respectful, reliable in the way that we work with them and partner their aspirations … I’ll be absolutely looking to meet with my Pacific foreign minister counterparts, which I already have for many of them.

“When the border opened for Fiji, which was one of the earliest border openings, I went there to demonstrate that we want to engage very quickly and as border settings allow I’m going to absolutely try and get to many of the places across the Pacific.”

China had the resources to do a full Pacific tour, had been working for a long time to build its relationship with the Pacific, and Chinese interests in the Pacific were not new, she said.

“They have the resources to do that obviously but they have over a period of time secured a strong relationship across the whole of the Pacific and they’re building on that.

“What is unusual is that they’ve done eight pacific countries… in a very short time.”

She planned to travel to Solomon Islands as soon as the country’s foreign minister, Jeremiah Manele, was available to meet with her.

Sio meanwhile will also participate in events to celebrate Samoa Language Week and the 60th Anniversary of Samoa’s independence upon his return to Aotearoa New Zealand.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

New Zealand’s condemnation of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council elections reflects a “hardening stance” towards China, says a leading defence analyst.

Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta last week joined her Five Eyes counterparts to express “grave concern” over the erosion of democratic elements of the new electoral system.

“Actions that undermine Hong Kong’s rights, freedoms and high degree of autonomy are threatening our shared wish to see Hong Kong succeed,” the joint statement reads.

• READ MORE: G7 condemns ‘erosion’ of democracy in Hong Kong election

Pro-Beijing candidates swept the seats under the new “patriots-only” rules that saw a record-low voting turnout of 30.2 percent; almost half of the previous legislative poll in 2016.

New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States are now urging the People’s Republic of China to respect protected rights and fundamental freedoms of Hong Kong.

Director of 36th Parallel Assessments Dr Paul Buchanan said this reflected New Zealand’s cooling relationship with China as it increasingly aligned itself with its traditional partners.

“It’s very clear something has shifted in the logic of the security community and foreign policy community in Wellington. I tend to believe it is Chinese behaviour rather than pressure from our allies, but it may be a combination of both,” he said.

Increasing Chinese pressure
New Zealand’s relationship with China has come under increasing pressure this year after it raised concerns about Chinese state-funded hacking and the treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.

Mahuta has previously said New Zealand would be “uncomfortable” with the remit of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance being expanded to include diplomatic matters.

Dr Buchanan said it was not clear if last week’s joint statement on the Hong Kong elections was consistent with this stated independent foreign policy, or a sign New Zealand had abandoned this to better align itself with its traditional partners.

“That’s an open question to me, because I can see that the government can maintain independence and say, ‘simply on the issue of Hong Kong and China we side with our traditional partners, but on any range of other issues, we don’t necessarily fall in line with them’,” he said.

“On the other hand, maybe the government has made a decision that the threat from the Chinese is of such a magnitude it’s time to pick a side, get off straddling the fence and choose the side of our traditional partners because the Chinese values are inimical to the New Zealand way of life.”

Dr Buchanan said a “hardening stance” towards China was in line with the contents of a new defence report that recently identified ‘China’s rise’ and its power struggle with the United States as one of the pre-eminent security risks in the Indo-Pacific.

“This may be more reflective of the security officials’ concerns about China and that may not be shared by the entirety of the current government.

General consensus
“Although, the fact that the foreign minister signed off on this latest Five Eyes statement regarding Hong Kong would indicate that there is a general consensus within the New Zealand foreign policy and security establishment that China is a threat.”

In response to the joint Five Eyes statement on Hong Kong, the Chinese Embassy issued a statement telling the members to stop interfering with Hong Kong and China’s affairs.

Of particular concern, Dr Buchanan said, was China’s explicit assertion in this response it was led by China’s Constitution and the Basic Law, not the Sino-British Joint Declaration, in its administration of Hong Kong.

“The Chinese now have said that the joint declaration signed in 1997, no longer applies and all that applies in Hong Kong is Chinese law.

“So they’ve violated their commitment to that principle and that’s symptomatic of an increasingly-hardened approach to everything, quite frankly, of a policy matter under Xi Jinping.”

Dr Buchanan said New Zealand, whose biggest trading partner is China, was positioned as the most vulnerable of the Five Eyes partners to any potential economic retaliation from China.

“It would be pretty easy to see that if the Chinese are going to retaliate against anybody in the Anglophone world, it would more than likely be us because it’ll cost them very little, people have to change their dietary habits among the Chinese middle class, but it will have a dramatic effect on us because a third of our GDP is tied up with bilateral trade with China.

“But the government has clearly signalled that it’s seeking to diversify. It has now signalled that on the diplomatic and security front, it sees the Chinese increasingly as a malign actor, and so whatever is coming on the horizon, this government at least appears prepared to weather the storm.”

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.