By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist
Pacific foreign ministers have given their nod of approval for United States territories Guam and American Samoa to be associate members of main regional decision-making body, but a political analyst says it is geopolitics at play.
The news was delivered by Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) chair and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown at the PIF Foreign Ministers Meeting on Friday.
Brown said both territories meet the current qualifying criteria for associate membership.
- LISTEN TO RNZ MORNING REPORT: Guam and American Samoa to become associate members of Pacific Islands Forum
- Other Pacific Islands Forum reports
“I have to say there is widespread support for the membership of Guam and American Samoa, and so that is the recommendation in principle coming from foreign ministers that will be tabled with leaders,” he said.
However, Griffith Asia Institute’s Pacific Hub project lead Dr Tess Newton Cain said the move had a geopolitical aspect.
“When it comes to the Pacific Islands Forum, the US has struggled with the fact that it sits at the same table as China — they are both dialogue partners,” she said.
“It is like when you invite people to a wedding — the US does not like the table it is on.
US seeking ‘better table’
“It wants to be on a better table and being able to have two of its territories, American Samoa and Guam, get that associate membership — if that happens — does seem to indicate this is how they get a little bit of an edge on China.”
She expects the application to be accepted at the Leaders’ Meeting in Tonga at the end of the month.
Tokelau and Wallis and Futuna are currently the associate members of the Forum. American Samoa and Guam are currently forum observers; being upgraded to associate members will give them better participation in the regional institution.
Guam’s Governor Lou Leon Guerrero told RNZ Pacific last week the territory would ultimately want to be full voting members.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had previously said the territories’ political status meant they could not be full members but he supported the application for associate membership.
French territories New Caledonia and French Polynesia became full members in 2016.
Newton Cain believes full membership for the two US territories would be a push.
French territories ‘justified’
But she said for the French territories it was “kind of justified” — New Caledonia was on the path to independence, while French Polynesia was re-inscribed to the United Nations list of non-self-governing territories (C-24 list).
“If Guam and American Samoa are not interested, or there is no kind of indication that they are moving towards being sovereign or even in a compact, like Marshall Islands and Palau and FSM, then that would be a big ask.”
Newton Cain thinks full membership would mean some member states would have concerns because it means Washington is getting closer to the decision making.
“There is also regional concern surrounding Guam’s military build-up. If the territory wanted to progress to full membership it may not be able to comply with the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Treaty,” Newton Cain said.
Architecture reform
Brown said the Forum was undergoing a review of its architecture, including criteria for associate member status and observer status, which would likely see changes to associate membership applications.
“So, while [Guam and American Samoa] applications will be considered by leaders, and in this case, it looks favourably to be elevated to associate membership — the review of the regional architecture, as it pertains to associate membership, may see some changes,” he said.
Newton Cain said it was not clear what Brown meant.
“It would be a very bad look diplomatically if they were to allow them to become associate members and then in a couple of years say, ‘oh we have changed the rules now and you no longer qualify’.”
This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.
