Timor-Leste independence hero Xanana Gusmao has won the parliamentary election, but the country’s first president may contest the count after his party fell short of an outright majority.

The result of Sunday’s election paves the way for a return to power for the 76-year-old, Timor-Leste’s first president, if he can form a coalition.

Fellow independence figure Dr Mari Alkatiri’s incumbent Fretilin party, formerly the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor, won only 25.7 percent, according to the Electoral Commission.

• READ MORE: Timor-Leste is at the polls, here’s how Australia can support its democracy
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• Other Timor-Leste election reports

Dr Andrea Fahey from the Australian National University said the results signalled a desire for political change from the people of Timor-Leste.

“The management of the covid pandemic and the fact the government closed down, it was a big punishment vote on the government for that,” she said.

“For Dr Alkatiri, maybe it’s time to pass the torch.”

If there is no outright winner from the election, the constitution gives the party with the most votes the opportunity to form a coalition.

The next government will need to decide on allowing the development of the Greater Sunrise project, which aims to tap trillions of cubic metres of natural gas.

Dr Fahey said Gusmao was expected to move forward with engaging the Australian government on the project.

There are also growing calls for Timor-Leste to join the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), which could owe to its cultural connections to the region.

“It’s kind of the bridge between both regions,” Dr Fahey said.

“Timor-Leste would be a positive addition to the Pacific Forum, and could bring a loud voice [since] Timor has a strong international presence.”

Republished from the ABC Pacific Beat with permission.

Today is election day in Timor-Leste, when voters are deciding on 65 members of Parliament to represent them.

Each election is a reminder of the successful regional and international cooperation that led to Timor-Leste’s independence. It is also a reminder of the importance of Timor-Leste as an exemplar of democracy, peace and human rights as foundational values.

It is in Australia’s interest that this be nurtured.

• READ MORE: After a border dispute and spying scandal, can Australia and Timor-Leste be good neighbours?
• ASEAN leaders give ‘in-principle’ support for Timor-Leste’s membership. What does this actually mean?
• Timor-Leste makes top ten in 2023 World Press Freedom Index

As a small state facing many challenges, maintaining these values has regional and global resonance.

Timor-Leste is an important voice both in the Pacific and Southeast Asia. It is a successful state that, despite difficulties, has been able to be peace-loving and sustain relations with Indonesia.

By contrast, democratic regression, or the worst-case scenario of a failed state, would be an enormous setback for the entire region.

What role should Australia play in keeping this democracy strong?

Complicated relationship
The history of the Australia-Timor-Leste bilateral relationship is complicated. It includes the vital Timorese assistance during World War II and Australia’s tacit approval of Indonesia’s 1975 annexation.

It also includes Australia leading the UN International Force East Timor (INTERFET), which in turn led to Timor-Leste’s transition to independence following a referendum in 1999.

The two nations have been complexly intertwined through Timor-Leste’s journey to independence and democratic development.

Well, this is like the best thing I’ve seen in forever#TimorLeste #TimorVotes #election pic.twitter.com/gqB1CcORvp

— Marian Faa (@marianfaa) May 16, 2023

There have been instances of unease between the two countries. The most notable was the allegation of Australian spying during negotiations on the Greater Sunrise oil fields. This remains an ongoing issue with the potential to derail ties again.

But there have also been positive steps, such as Operation Astute, an Australian-led military and police deployment. This operation helped stabilise the country during the 2006-2008 political turmoil that culminated in the attempted assassination of President Jose Ramos-Horta and his medical evacuation.

In 2018, Australia and Timor-Leste concluded a treaty establishing their maritime boundaries following a United Nations conciliation process.

The complexity of the relationship means Australia needs to be respectful in relations, but it should not stop Australia from being a partner to support Timor-Leste’s democratic processes and institutions.

Supporting governance
A recent report outlines how Australia can support Timor-Leste’s governance in ways that ensure effective, capable and legitimate institutions that are responsive to people.

Australia has a track record of such programs. The eight-year, $72 million Governance for Development Programme supported Timor-Leste agencies to develop good policy and improve systems as well as helping civil society engage with government decision-making.

The programme worked in areas including public financial management, economic policy, enabling business, public service administration, law reform and financial services.

The Partnership for Inclusive Prosperity (PROVISU) will continue to support good governance and economic policy by providing support to Timor-Leste’s central government agencies and economic ministries. Through programmes like this, Australia can offer meaningful support to Timor-Leste.

Good governance that responds to citizens’ needs is a perennial problem. Timor-Leste’s nascent bureaucracy makes this a priority issue. Australia should continue to develop partnerships that strengthen institutions so they are able to deal with problems.

An example of this is PARTISIPA, a ten-year $80 million programme to improve access to quality basic infrastructure and services. It works in partnership with national and subnational governments to improve the delivery of decentralised services and village-level infrastructure, such as rural water. It continues Australia’s long-term support for the national village development programme and its community-driven processes.

Another area where Australia can contribute is in media.

Vibrant media
Timor-Leste has a vibrant media landscape that is among the freest in the region. Australian can support Timor-Leste to ensure its media are strong and robust as well as free, with public interest is at its core.

It can also work with local media to strengthen their ability to educate the general public on governance issues, to hold power to account and to promote the rule of law.

An example of this is a recent memorandum of understanding between the ABC and Timor-Leste’s public broadcaster RTTL, which includes media development programmes. The agreement recognises the vital role both organisations play in informing audiences and contributing to democracy.

The ABC will work with RTTL to establish a new English-language news service, helping staff enhance their journalism and content-making skills.

Another priority Australia can engage with is the justice system.

Consultations with Timorese civil society organisations, conducted by the Asia Foundation for the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue (AP4D) report, revealed a particular concern about rebuilding trust in the judicial system. It is an area with which Australia has not been greatly involved compared to Portugal.

Australia should also engage with Timorese political parties, recognising the important structural role they play in governance. This can complement continued engagement with formal government institutions and the national parliament.

Promotion of human rights
Australia should continue to invest in the protection and promotion of human rights.

Finally, Australia should be a partner for youth civic and political engagement, given the reality of a future political transition from independence leaders to younger generations.

Timor-Leste today lives with a legacy of conflict, which has far-reaching implications. There is significant pressure on government to meet the needs and expectations of the Timorese people. Australia can be a partner to support these goals.

By helping to build a stronger, resilient and prosperous Timor-Leste, Australia is investing in a more secure and stable immediate neighbourhood, which will reap mutual benefits.

Dr Melissa Conley Tyler is a honorary fellow, Asia Institute, The University of Melbourne and Andrea Fahey, PhD scholar, National Security College, Australian National University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

Leaders from the three key parties in the Timor-Leste governing coalition have confirmed that are supporting the incumbent head of state, Francisco “Lú-Olo” Guterres, in the second round of the presidential elections next month, reports Lusa news agency.

The officials of the three parties — Fretilin, PLP and KHUNTO– were together at a national conference of the People’s Liberation Party (PLP) that analysed both support in the presidential elections and for their three-way platform for the 2023 legislature.

Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak, president of the PLP, announced that he supported Lú-Olo’s candidacy in the run-off round of the presidential election on April 2-16.

• READ MORE: Other Timorese presidential elections reports

He never spoke out in the first round and he says he will now take a break to take part in the electoral campaign.

“My plan is this: first, to ensure that the coalition, in 2023, continues to work together, to compete for the legislative elections,” he said.

“Then, within the framework of the project of continuing to work together, to support Lú-Olo as the candidate for president for a new term,” Ruak told journalists.

KHUNTO leader José Naimori said his party also supported the current head of state.

Support for ‘brother Lú-Olo’
“Our three parties together support brother Lú-Olo to be president for another term,” he said.

Dr Mari Alkatiri, secretary-general of Fretilin (Frente Revolucionaria de Timor-Leste Independente), Timor-Leste’s largest political party, expressed confidence in support for Lú-Olo.

“I am sure that the PLP and KHUNTO, together with Fretilin, support Lú-Olo. It is a platform that supports Lú-Olo’s national candidacy,” he said.

Ruak said the prime minister’s functions would be carried out by deputy prime minister Armanda Berta dos Santos while he was campaigning in the elections.

Berta dos Santos, president of KHUNTO (Kmanek Haburas National Unit Timor Oan) was the third most successful candidate in the first round of the presidential elections on March 19 with 8.69 percent of the votes.

“All militants have to maintain this position, ensuring that we’re together until 2023 and that we give the victory to Lú-Olo”, she said.

Guterres gained the second most votes (22.16 percent) in the first round and will contest the run-off with José Ramos-Horta, a former president and the Nobel Peace Prize laureate (46.51 percent).

Other decisions awaited
Among the highest placed of the 16 candidates, a formal decision is still awaited by Lere Anan Timur – voted fourth with 7.57 percent of the votes – and the Democratic Party (PD) which supported the candidacy of Mariano Assanami Sabino, fifth most voted with 7.26 percent.

Some candidates have already announced their support, among them Anacleto Ferreira, Rogério Lobato and Isabel Ferreira, who will support José Ramos-Horta.

Others, such as Milena Pires and Virgílio Guterres, left the decision up to the freedom of their supporters, despite the latter saying he would not support a candidate who intended to dissolve Parliament — a reference to Ramos-Horta.

Asked about the fact that his wife, Isabel Ferreira, had already announced that she backed Ramos-Horta, Prime Minister Ruak said democracy was practised at home.

“In our family there is democracy, we practise democracy at home. We have Protestant, Catholic, Muslim people. And in politics we have a family from Fretilin, CNRT, PLP and there is no problem. This is democracy,” he said.

Republished with permission.

Timor-Leste’s citizens voted for a new president at the weekend, hoping the most competitive election in the history of the Asia-Pacific’s youngest country will end a protracted political impasse, reports France 24.

Voters lined up outside polling stations at the crack of dawn on Saturday to choose between a record 16 candidates led by two revolutionary heroes in incumbent Francisco “Lu-Olo” Guterres and former president and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Jose Ramos-Horta.

Three days on, the official result is yet to be announced, but appears to be headed for a run-off vote next month with president Ramos-Horta well in the lead, ahead of Guterres, the candidate of the party that led Timor-Leste to independence, Fretilin.

• READ MORE: Ramos-Horta on brink of claiming presidency in East Timor elections
• Timor-Leste vote highlights young nation’s political impasse
• East Timor chooses new president amid political deadlock

Although Ramos has more than double (46.58 percent) the vote of Guterres, the lead is still short of the needed 50 percent and a second round of voting is expected to be declared for April 19 with the other 14 candidates dropping out.

The winner will take office on May 20, Timor-Leste’s 20th anniversary of the restoration of independence from Indonesia, which invaded and occupied the former Portuguese colony for 24 years.

Following temperature checks and hand sanitisation on election day, voters were ushered to the polling booths where they dabbed their fingers in ink to show they had voted.

Several mothers carrying babies were among those eager to elect a new president.

“I hope the leader that I have voted for can pay more attention to the education, infrastructure and farming sectors. I am very happy that I’ve voted for a candidate based on my consciousness,” 35-year-old Filomena Tavares Maria told AFP news agency outside the polls that opened at 7 am and shut at 3 pm.

Struck by Cyclone Seroja
First hammered by the covid-19 pandemic, Timor-Leste’s economy took another hit last year when Cyclone Seroja struck, killing at least 40 people on its half of the island and transforming communities into wastelands of mud and uprooted trees.

Political tensions between the two largest parties — Guterres’ Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin) and the National Congress of the Reconstruction of Timor-Leste (CNRT) — have also risen in the past four years, leading to a political deadlock that has seen the government fail to pass a budget.

Sidalia dos Santos said she hoped the new president could lead an economic recovery.

“I hope the candidate that I voted for can improve our lives, especially in the health and education sector,” the 22-year-old student said.

Outside the polling station, Ramos-Horta said the financial situation would be his main priority: “The most important thing for me is to strengthen the stability and build a better economy”.

Earlier in the week, he said he felt compelled to return to politics because Guterres had “breached the constitution” and overstepped his presidential role.

But Guterres, a 67-year-old former guerilla fighter, said he was confident the elections would bring him a second term.

“I believe I will win this election and people will reconfirm their rights through the election. If I am re-elected, I will keep defending the democratic rights of our country and create sustainable development.”

Early elections cannot be allowed to “become the political culture” in Timor-Leste, says the leader of the opposition Fretilin party, Dr Marí Alkatiri.

The former Prime Minister said he wants to see an end to the political impasse, prompted by the collapse of the governing AMP Alliance.

But, he stressed, Fretilin does not want to join the government right now.

READ MORE: In Timor-Leste, failed budget sparks a political crisis

“Fretilin forms government in 2023, not in 2020,” he said, after meeting with the minority Democratic Party (PD) yesterday.

Fretilin was defeated in the 2018 election by the AMP Alliance, comprising Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak’s PLP, Xanana Gusmão’s CNRT, and the KHUNTO party.

The coalition fell apart after CNRT helped block the government’s 2020 budget in December, and the PLP has ruled out forming a new coalition with Gusmão’s party.

President Francisco Guterres Lú-Olo has the authority to dissolve Parliament and order fresh elections, ahead of schedule. But Dr Alkatiri argues that would be a mistake.

‘Have a fight, then divorced’
“We are not able to settle the argument, and now we go for election? It’s like husband and wife [who] have a fight, then get divorced. Fretilin does not want it to be the culture,” Dr Alkatiri said.

Dr Alkatiri said that during the first three years of President Lú-Olo’s five-year term, he has called an early election twice, and that unlike in European democracies, they have a greater impact on Timorese public institutions.

“Now, two [early] elections in our country have affected public administration. And if it affects the administration, it affects people’s lives, this is what we should avoid,” he said.

Dr Alkatiri said Fretilin delegations would travel to 10 districts, beginning with the Oé-Cusse enclave and two municipalities that are aligned to the party.

Evaristo Soares Martins is a journalist for Tatoli. Translated by Nelia Borges.

With more than 99 percent of votes counted in the poll, Timor-Leste’s opposition Alliance of Change for Progress (AMP) was leading at the weekend with 49.59 percent of the total votes and is set to break the country’s political deadlock.

The coalition squeaked across the line with an absolute majority, preliminary election results showed yesterday, after a fractious campaign marred by violence and mud-slinging, reports SBS-AFP News.

It was the second general election in less than a year for the half-island nation of 1.2 million that is struggling to boost its oil-dependent economy, after a months-long political impasse saw Parliament dissolved in January.

READ MORE: Timorese election resolves political stalemate

With 97 percent of votes from Saturday’s election counted, the three-party Parliamentary Majority Alliance (AMP) – led by independence hero Xanana Gusmao – had about 48 percent of the votes.

The result means the alliance – which includes the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) led by Gusmao, the People’s Liberation Party (PLP) and the youth-based Khunto – has secured an overall majority of 34 seats in the 65-member legislature.

The former Portuguese colony won independence in 2002 after a brutal, 24-year occupation by neighbouring Indonesia followed by 2 1/2 years of UN stewardship.

Fretilin, which narrowly won last July’s poll, had about 36 percent, leaving it with 23 seats.

No reports of unrest
Despite a fractious campaign and fears of violence on election day, there were no reports of unrest.

Clashes broke out the previous weekend between Fretilin and opposition supporters, with more than a dozen people injured.

Parliament was dissolved and new elections called in January amid tensions between former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri’s minority government and the opposition centred around Gusmao’s CNRT.

Dr Alkatiri’s Fretilin party-led government collapsed after its bid to introduce a policy programme and new budget were thwarted by a hostile opposition.

“This outcome should produce a return to political stability in Timor-Leste and may allow Xanana Gusmao time to again consider looking to a replacement leader from the next generation after a suitable amount of time has elapsed,” said Professor Damien Kingsbury, coordinator of the Australia Timor-Leste Election Observer Mission.

“In terms of economic policy, it will be business as usual, which raises questions about the longer term viability for Timor-Leste,” Dr Kingsbury added.

Big challenges ahead
The incoming government will face big challenges, especially as the clock is ticking fast on its disappearing oil and gas reserves.

Oil and gas pay for the bulk of government spending but oil revenues are in steep decline and the country has few other productive economic sectors.

About 60 percent of Timor Leste’s population is under 25, according to the World Bank, while some 40 percent of its people live in poverty.

Providing jobs for young people and reining in public spending – especially on large infrastructure projects – will be key tasks for the new government, commentators say.

• Timorese vote in fresh election after tense campaign
• More Timor-Leste stories

After a tense month-long campaign and two rest days, East Timorese cast their votes today in the Timor-Leste’s latest parliamentary elections. With the campaign characterised by considerable bitterness between the major parties, much is at stake.

Despite narrowly prevailing at the election just nine months ago, the Fretilin-led minority government failed to gain parliamentary support for its programme and budget during 2017.

The president — also from Fretilin — dissolved parliament and called today’s poll.

READ MORE: AMP winning, according to early provisional results

The East Timorese electoral agencies, short of funds after last year’s election and the parliamentary impasse, have risen to the occasion extremely well.

And, in a remarkable testimony to Timor-Leste’s young population, the electoral roll has grown by 3.1 percent to 784,000 voters, with around 24,000 voters turning 17 in just over nine months since last July.

Last year’s campaign came in the wake of a national unity government involving informal power-sharing between Xanana Gusmão’s CNRT and Fretilin. But relations quickly soured after an election that Fretilin won narrowly with 23 seats to CNRT’s 22.

In the end, Fretilin was only able to attract the Democratic Party, with its seven seats, to its minority coalition government, giving prime minister Dr Mari Alkatiri 30 seats in the 65-seat Parliament.

Rejected programme
Within weeks, the remaining parties had formed the Parliamentary Majority Alliance (AMP) a coalition controlling 35 seats, and had voted down the government’s programme and budget.

Fretilin feels aggrieved that it did not receive parliamentary support after narrowly finishing ahead last year, despite an alternative coalition having been ruled out publicly by Xanana Gusmão in the immediate wake of the July election.

For its part, the AMP feels bitter about Fretilin’s parliamentary tactics last year, which delayed the second presentation of the government programme and prevented it from falling before the six-month mark, when the president could dissolve Parliament and call fresh elections.

AMP figures feel that their alliance should have been installed in government during the life of the Parliament. How these issues have influenced the voting public will be known tomorrow.

This year’s campaign has been marked by the resurgence of the “history wars,” the clash between the two wings of the East Timorese resistance during the Indonesian occupation.

The AMP has reunited Xanana Gusmão and his CNRT with former president Taur Matan Ruak’s Popular Liberation Party (PLP), which were at loggerheads during the 2017 election. Both were leaders of the armed resistance, Falintil.

The campaign has been frequently depicted as a contest between the armed front and members of the diplomatic front, who were outside the country during the occupation, including prime minister Alkatiri and key diplomatic figure Jose Ramos-Horta, who has thrown his weight behind the Fretilin campaign.

Hurt by attacks
Though he has not responded to them, Ramos-Horta has evidently been hurt by the attacks on his legacy, some of which have sought to diminish the contribution of those who struggled for independence in the international arena.

This division over resistance history has lent an unpleasant air to a campaign that has also been marked by exchanges of personal slurs between the major party leaders, including some outbursts of anti-Muslim sentiment directed at the Fretilin leader Dr Mari Alkatiri, and fractious personal debates on Facebook.

From the east of the country have come reports of rock attacks on AMP caravans in Viqueque, bringing back memories of the divisive 2007 election, which occurred in the wake of the 2006 political–military crisis.

The AMP parties have also complained of low-level attacks in Laga region of Baucau, were temperatures still run hot over the death of dissident veteran Mauk Moruk in 2014.

Yet the campaign has been remarkably peaceful on the whole, with colourful mass rallies of party supporters generally well behaved throughout most of the country.

The campaign has also been marred by a handful of accusations of favouritism and irregularities against the electoral agencies, prompting the head of the National Electoral Commission (CNE) to publicly defend the organisation in press conferences.

Several complaints originated on AMP’s Facebook page, including concerns over printing errors in the ballots, which were quickly identified and cancelled, and suspicions about meetings between CNE and political parties that turned out to be part of routine investigation of previous complaints.

Closely watched
The CNE has responded quickly and satisfactorily. With domestic and international observers closely watching the process and extremely professional electoral agencies, there is very little scope for manipulation.

The CNE and the Technical Secretariat of Electoral Administration have done an excellent job under trying circumstances with limited budgets.

While the parties have discussed differing visions for the future, especially during the series of TV debates, considerable energy has been diverted into personal and historical debates within the small political elite. The new AMP alliance brings together two parties that ran last year on fundamentally different development agendas, and it remains to be seen how the CNRT’s focus on major infrastructure spending can be reconciled with the PLP’s more grassroots focus on basic development spending on health education and agriculture.

How voters have received this new combination will be known tomorrow.

For their part, supporters of Fretilin and the Democratic Party (PD) have been on friendly terms throughout the campaign, suggesting the alliance seems to be holding, though this relationship could be easily revisited in the interparty negotiations that follow the election.

The AMP is a formidable coalition of parties that received 29.5 percent, 10.5 percent and 6.5 percent last year: a total of 46.5 per cent. It could also receive the support of the Democratic Development Front, or FDD, the coalition of the smaller parties most likely to exceed the 4 per cent threshold required to get seats. This is not certain, though, and there are at least some rumblings of dissent from one of the parties inside FDD. On the other side, Fretilin received 29.7 percent in 2017, and its PD partner in the minority government received 9.8 percent.

No polls have been taken to indicate the likely result tomorrow. As a baseline indication, if last year’s vote is notionally combined into the new party coalitions that have formed, the AMP would start with a nominal allocation of 33 seats — the minimum majority required.

Favourite on paper
In turn, Fretilin, PD and the FDD would receive 21, six and five seats respectively. If FDD cannot clear the 4 percent hurdle, these notional numbers rise to 36 for the AMP, 22 for Fretilin, and seven for PD.

The AMP therefore starts as favourite on paper, but the outcome tomorrow can easily change from the 2017 results., As a rough guide, Fretilin requires a swing of just under 4 per cent (if FDD does not take seats) rising to more like 6 per cent if the FDD gains seats and backs the AMP.

These are clearly challenging targets for Fretilin, though not impossible, especially in the former case. It may be that the smaller coalition becomes instrumental in the final result if things run close.

Some longer-term trends are striking. At a forum on the elections I conducted in Dili on Thursday, younger Timorese commented that though they are often reluctant to openly criticise their resistance-era leaders, young people are more interested in the development policies of the government and how they will help to create future jobs.

There was also a sense in last year’s election result that while resistance-era legitimacy remains important to political fortunes, it is starting to offer diminishing returns for East Timorese leaders as the median age of the voting public falls, and voters look for solutions to entrenched development problems.

The young people at the forum also felt that the direst warnings of potential trouble if one side or the other loses tomorrow have come from political insiders themselves, with most ordinary people confident that the national police can manage any post-election troubles.

Young voters also said Dili’s noisy and active social media has played a mixed role — allowing more opportunities for debate, on the one hand, and especially for women’s and young people’s voice to come through, but also distributing fake news and rumours, and not fully representing rural voices.

Potential sleeper trend
Another potential sleeper trend is the changing attitude of the Catholic Church to the major parties. The Church responded positively to the concordat with the Vatican orchestrated by the PM of the previous national unity government, Fretilin’s Rui Araujo.

Despite occasional slurs against Mari Alkatiri, most of the older political leadership from the 1970s does not identify strongly with the church, though younger Timorese broadly do.

As tomorrow’s poll approaches, both sides are supremely confident of victory in their public statements. Either way, it is likely that Timor-Leste will be in good hands, and the real issue as always will be how the unsuccessful parties accept the results.

After last year’s uncertain result, East Timorese will be hoping for a clear and decisive outcome.

Dr Michael Leach is Professor of Politics and International Relations at Swinburne University of Technology. This article was first published by Inside Story and is republished with the permission of the author.

• A democratic coup in Timor-Leste
• Early election results give victory to AMP

Former Prime Minister Dr Mari Alkatiri, the current secretary-general of the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin), described his party’s win of about 30 percent of the vote as a “a victory for all people”.

“Now we will look forward to guaranteed stability, ongoing development and to bring people out of poverty,” Dr Alkatiri told reporters yesterday afternoon after 92 percent of the vote had been counted.

The party has come out ahead of Timor-Leste’s other major political force – the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) – headed by former president and independence leader Xanana Gusmao, which picked up about 28 percent of the vote, according to official numbers.

However, Dr Alkatiri said his party’s “victory” was also a win for Gusmao’s CNRT, with which they formed a de facto coalition in 2015, ushering in a new era of political unity in a country previously racked by conflict and instability.

Their cornering of about 58 percent of the vote showed an “endorsement” of this stability, said Professor Michael Leach, a Timorese specialist from Swinburne University.

But a reflection of a lower level of satisfaction with the government is the emergence of the newly established People’s Liberation Party (PLP) and the “disenfranchised youth” party Khunto, which picked up about 10.2 and 6.9 percent of the vote respectively.

Anti-corruption platform
Riding on a platform of anti-corruption, the PLP has called for an end to life pensions for government members and a re-routing of funds from big infrastructure projects into grassroots areas like health, education, water and sanitation.

A key concern has been the country’s over-reliance on oil and gas revenue to fund projects, salaries and services, with fears that unless the economy diversifies quickly, the country will run out of money within 10 to 15 years.

Professor Leach said Khunto had tapped into “disenfranchised youth unable to get a job”.

“They very much pitched their campaign at jobless youth and have done rather well and they will be in parliament more than doubling their 2012 vote,” he said.

Professor Leach said it would be interesting to see where the parliament goes from here.

It is yet unclear whether Fretilin, whose win will mean they get “first bite of the cherry”, will continue their de facto partnership with CNRT or forge new ties.

Another question is whether these emerging parties are offered and accept ministries – making them a less effective opposition.

Votes for the already established Democratic Party remained steady at about 10.2 percent – similar to their 2012 result.

• In Timor-Leste, more power-sharing likely

Fretilin (Frente Revolucionaria do Timor-Leste Independente) has denounced acts of “intimidation and terror” carried out by some people in political parties against the members and sympathisers of the main independence political group in the sub-district of Laga, Baucau, on the eve of the elections being held today.

According to the information received by Fretilin, in the last few days some members of the new Popular Liberation Party (PLP) have been intimidating the communities in the villages of Atelari, Sagadate, Samalari, Nunira and Saelari.

Voters had been told that if they did not vote for certain political parties in today’s election, their houses would be ransacked and those who voted against PLP would be killed, Fretilin said in a statement.

“Fretilin calls on the authorities responsible for security; the PNTL and F-FDTL and request that they pay attention and provide security to the communities in these areas to allow the community exercising their democratic rights freely” said party deputy secretary-general José Reis in the statement before the election.

“Fretilin also calls on the electoral observers, national and international, to take notice of this situation.

‘Posing threats’
“Fretilin calls on the people of Laga and all over the country not to be intimidated for the state security authorities are prepared to deal with any attempts to destabilise and pose threats to peace in Timor-Leste,” Reis said.

The party encouraged community members to immediately relay any acts of intimidation and threat to the security forces.

Fretilin complained to the National Electoral Commission (CNE) about the issue.

Twenty-one parties are contesting 65 parliamentary seats in today’s election.

“In a population with a median age of just under 19 years and a voting age of 17, a fifth of Timor-Leste’s 750,000 registered voters will be participating for the first time,” writes analyst Professor Michael Leach.

• Dr Michael Leach’s Timor-Leste election preview – more power-sharing likely

Backed by Fretilin, the party that led the revolutionary struggle to the country’s independence, Guterres was leading earlier today with 59.24 percent of votes, reports The Sydney Morning Herald.

But the Herald also reported that only 34.34 percent of votes had been counted by early today, reflecting huge logistical problems in the largely mountainous country with a poor road network.

Reuter reported that vote had come at a challenging time for the Pacific fringe nation 15 years after independence from Indonesia, with oil reserves running dry and its leaders struggling to reach agreement with Australia over lucrative energy fields.

Timor-Leste has a population of just 1.2 million people but the results will take a few days to process.

But observers are happy.

“It’s been a very good election process,” says Professor Damian Kingsbury, an official observer from Australia. “It’s been quite well run, it has been a celebration of the opportunity and the right to be able to vote for political leaders.”

This is the first election that has been run without international assistance and, although there have been some minor technical problems, it has been a very successful process.

Guterres is expected to win. He was once the general coordinator of the resistance against Indonesian rule.

Resistance leaders
“The voting result as we have right now, shows that the country’s leadership is still largely dominated by high-profile resistance leaders,” says Khoo Ying Hooi, of the University of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur.

Former rebel leaders Xanana Gusmao, José Ramos-Horta, Taur Matan Ruak, Dr Maria Alkateri, all became presidents and prime ministers after independence and still call the political shots.

“Back in 2012, Xanana Gusmao’s influence was seen in his support of Taur Matan Ruat,” says Khoo Ying Hooi. “This time around, his strong support for Lu Olu as president has proven that Timorese are still looking at history when they vote.”

Timor-Leste is currently fighting another battle – this time against Australia in the courtrooms of the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

Dili is demanding access to large stretches of sea that may contain rich oilfields, potentially worth billions of euros.

With its other neighbour, former occupying power Indonesia, Timor-Leste seems to have reached an agreement.

Bilateral relationship
“There was an official decision taken many years ago that the two countries needed to establish a positive bilateral relationship,” says Professor Kingsbury, who crossed the border between Timor-Leste and Indonesian-ruled West Timor to find Indonesians “very curious about the election process”.

But he did not sense that Indonesia tried to influence the elections.

“Leaderships of both countries worked very hard to achieve cooperation,” he says, pointing at a recently developed joint Indonesian-East Timorese police training programme.

But he says that decades of occupation that ended in brutal bloodshed before independence is still felt among the Timorese, especially the fact that significant human rights abuses by the Indonesian military were not properly addressed.

If that will ever happen, he doesn’t know.

“The reality is that Timor-Leste, a very small country with only 1.2 million people is surrounded by big Indonesia with more than 240 million. So it is just a practical necessity to get along with this neighbour,” he says.

Back to politics. Even though the old fighters are still dominating the scene, change may be in the air.

“A younger generation of leaders is emerging,” says Khoo Ying Hooi. “Many are supporting the Popular Liberation Party.”

The newly formed PLP did not field a presidential candidate but is expected to campaign in parliamentary elections set for July.