One year since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese went to San Diego to unveil the AUKUS deal the news came that the first of three second-hand Virginia class nuclear-powered submarines supposed to arrive in 2032 may not happen.

Former coalition prime minister Scott Morrison announced AUKUS in September 2021 and Albanese continued to champion the pact between the US, Britain and Australia.

Phase one involves Australia acquiring eight nuclear-powered submarines as tensions in the Indo-Pacific are growing.

• READ MORE: Other AUKUS reports

Concerns about the submarines ever materialising are not new, despite the US passing its National Defence Bill 2024 which facilitates the transfer of the nuclear-powered warships.

However, the Pentagon’s 2025 fiscal year budget only set aside funding to build one Virginia submarine. This affects the AUKUS deal as the US had promised to lift production from around 1.3 submarines a year to 2.3 to meet all requirements.

Australia’s acquisition of the first of three second-hand SSNs were to bridge the submarine gap, as talk about a US-led war on China continues.

US Democratic congressperson Joe Courtney told The Sydney Morning Herald on March 12 the US was struggling with its own shipbuilding capacity, meaning promises to Australia were being deprioritised.

Production downturn
Courtney said that the downturn in production “will remove one more attack submarine from a fleet that is already 17 submarines below the navy’s long-stated requirement of 66”.

The US needs to produce 18 more submarines by 2032 to be able to pass one on to Australia.

After passing laws permitting the transfer of nuclear technology, the deal is running a year at least behind schedule.

Greens Senator David Shoebridge said on X that “When the US passed the law to set up AUKUS they put in kill switches, one of which allowed the US to decide not [to] transfer the submarines if doing so would ‘degrade the US undersea capabilities’”.

Pat Conroy, Labor’s Defence Industry Minister, retorted that the government was confident the submarines would appear.

The White House seems unfazed; it would have been aware of the problems for some time.

Meanwhile the USS Annapolis, a US nuclear-powered submarine (SSN) has docked in Boorloo/Perth.

AUKUS still under way
Regardless of whether Australia acquires any nuclear-powered vessels, the rest of the AUKUS deal, including interoperability with the US, is already underway.

Andrew Hastie, Liberal Party spokesperson, confirmed that construction at HMAS Stirling will start next year for “Submarine Rotational Force-West (SRF-West)”, the permanent US-British nuclear-powered submarine base in WA, which is due to be completed in 2027.

SRF-West includes 700 US army personnel and their families being stationed in WA. If the second-hand nuclear submarines do not materialise, the US submarines will be on hand.

SRF-West may also serve as an alternative to the five British-designed AUKUS SSNs, slated to be built in Kaurna Yerta/Adelaide over coming decades.

Australia respects the Pentagon’s warhead ambiguity policy, meaning that any US military equipment stationed here could be carrying nuclear weapons: we will never know.

Shoebridge said on March 13 he was entering a hearing to decide where the AUKUS powers can dump their nuclear waste. Local waste dumps are being considered, as the US and Britain do not have permanent radioactive waste dumps.

The waste to be dumped is said to have a low-level radioactivity. However, as former Senator Rex Patrick pointed out, SSNs produce high-level radioactive waste at the end of their shelf lives that will need to be stored somewhere, underground, forever.

‘Radioactive waste management’
The Australian Naval Nuclear Power Safety Bill 2023, tabled last November, allows for the AUKUS SSNs to be constructed and also provides for “a radioactive waste management facility”.

The Australian public is spending US$3 billion on helping the US submarine industrial base expand capacity. An initial US$2 billion will be spent next year, followed by $100 million annually from 2026 through to 2033.

The Pentagon has budgeted US$4 billion for its submarine industry next year, with an extra US$11 billion over the following five years.

The removal of the Virginia subs, and even the AUKUS submarines from the agreement, would be in keeping with the terms of the 2014 Force Posture Agreement, signed off by then prime minister Tony Abbott.

As part of the Barack Obama administration’s 2011 “pivot to Asia”, the US-Australia Force Posture Agreement allows for 2500 Marines to be stationed in the Northern Territory.

It sets up increasing interoperability between both countries’ air forces and allows the US unimpeded access to dozens of “agreed-to facilities and areas”.

These agreed bases remain classified.

US takes full control
However, as the recent US overhaul of RAAF Base Tindall in the NT reveals, when the US decides to do that it takes full control.

Tindall has been upgraded to allow for six US B-52 bombers that may be carrying nuclear warheads.

US laws that facilitate the transfer of Virginia-class submarines also make clear that as Australia is now classified as a US domestic military source this allows the US privileged access to critical minerals, such as lithium.

Paul Gregoire writes for Sydney Criminal Lawyers where a version of this article was first published. The article has also been published at Green Left magazine and is republished with permission.

RNZ Pacific

The Pacific Islands Forum chairman has been assured by the United States that the AUKUS agreement will honour the Treaty of Rarotonga after initially saying he felt it would go against it.

The Treaty of Rarotonga formalises a nuclear-weapon-free-zone in the South Pacific. It was signed by several Pacific nations, including Australia and New Zealand in 1985.

In a media statement, forum chairman and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown said he was “reassured to receive from US counterparts last week assurances that AUKUS would uphold the Rarotonga Treaty”.

• READ MORE:  Aukus ‘going against’ Pacific nuclear free treaty – Cook Islands leader
• Other AUKUS security reports

Brown initially raised concerns with the Cook Islands News about the agreement.

“The whole intention of the Treaty of Rarotonga was to try to de-escalate what were at the time Cold War tensions between the major superpowers. This AUKUS arrangement seems to be going against it,” Brown told the newspaper in March.

Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown. Photo: Sprep/Cook Islands Government

Brown told Cook Islands News at the time the situation “is what it is” but was not happy about how the arrangement had already lead to an escalation in tension within the region.

Last month, the leaders of the United States, the UK and Australia — Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak and Anthony Albanese respectively — formally announced the deal in San Diego.

It will see the Australian government spending nearly US$250 billion over the next three decades to acquire a fleet of US nuclear submarines with UK tech components — the majority of which will be built in Adelaide — as part of the defence and security pact.

Its implementation will make Australia one of only seven countries in the world to have nuclear-powered submarines alongside China, India, Russia, the UK, the US and France.

‘Assurance’ by Australia
New Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta told RNZ Pacific she had been given “assurance” by Australia that the treaty would be upheld.

Mahuta said as members of the Pacific, there was an expectation that nations were briefed on bilateral decisions that impact the stability of the region.

“What I can say from a New Zealand perspective, is that we need to work hard together as a Pacific family to ensure greater stability and there is no militarisation of our region,” she said.

“We want to maintain a nuclear-free Pacific, we want to work with Pacific neighbours around any security related issues.”

Mahuta visited China last month and said the non-militarisation of the Pacific was discussed in her meetings along with other issues, like climate change.

Geopolitical analyst Geoffrey Miller said the AUKUS deal was probably “complaint by the letter of the law” but not “by the spirit”.

“It does set a bad precedent … if you want to get hold of nuclear technology in the future just get it in a submarine because that seems to be acceptable,” Miller said.

‘Submarine loophole’
“It has been called a submarine loophole.”

He said concerns have been expressed by outside experts, including China, but they should be taken seriously.

Meanwhile, Vanuatu Minister, Ralph Regenvanu has called for Australia to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Regenvanu said in a tweet it was the “only way to assure us that the subs WON’T carry nuclear weapons” and it was a request from Vanuatu to sign.

The Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is a legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapon. The treaty entered into force in 2021.

However, when approached by RNZ Pacific, Regenvanu said he did not want to comment on his tweet and Australia’s Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy was visiting the Pacific nation later this week.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

The only way to assure us that the subs WON’T carry nuclear weapons, and that AUKUS will therefore NOT breach the Rarotonga Treaty, is for Australia to become a party to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Vanuatu is requesting that. https://t.co/eFSdRwTzTV

— Ralph Regenvanu (@RRegenvanu) April 5, 2023

The hopes of the families of the sailors aboard the Indonesian Navy’s KRI Nanggala-402 submarine were dashed at the weekend after the vessel was found in pieces on the seabed north of Bali and all 53 crew members were declared dead.

The Indonesian Military (TNI) announced it had located the submarine 838m below sea level about 1.3 kilometers south of the location from which it had made its last contact.

“With great sadness, I, the TNI commander, announce that the great soldiers of the Submarine Unit have died on duty in the sea north of Bali,” TNI commander Air Chief Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto said during a press briefing.

• READ MORE: Indonesian authorities say 53 submarine crew members dead

The announcement ended a four-day international search effort. Personnel from Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, India and the United States had helped scour the 10 square nautical miles believed to contain submarine.

Al Jazeera reports that the submarine – one of five in the Indonesian Navy – was found cracked apart on the seafloor.

Rescuers found new objects, including a life vest, that they believe belong to those on board the 44-year-old submarine, which lost contact as it prepared to conduct a torpedo drill.

Authorities said they received signals from the location early on Sunday and used an underwater submarine rescue vehicle supplied by Singapore to get a visual confirmation.

On Saturday, the navy said fragments of the submarine, including items from inside the vessel, had been retrieved but its location had yet to be confirmed.

Objects – including prayer mat fragments and a bottle of periscope lubricant were found near the submarine’s last known location.

A local Indonesian shipbuilder has formed a formal working group with a French company to explore Jakarta’s submarine requirements in what could be a further sign of the country’s interest, according to IHS Jane’s citing industry sources.

IHS Jane’s reports that Indonesian shipbuilder PT PAL has been in a formal working group with French firm DCNS under a government-to-government framework between France and Indonesia since March. The group includes representatives from the public and private sectors.

Indonesia, the world’s largest archipelagic state, currently only has two German-built Type 209 submarines, even though defence officials say Jakarta needs at least 12 submarines by 2024 to police its waters.

Indonesia has been mulling a new submarine purchase, and DCNS has been wooing Jakarta by both offering the new French-built Scorpene 1000 diesel-electric submarine as well as a combat system to repair and overhaul Indonesia’s existing German submarines.

Last October, DCNS revealed at the 2015 Pacific International Maritime Exhibition in Sydney that Indonesia and France had entered government-to-government talks.

The report of a new, formal working group suggests that Indonesia still has not dismissed these offers entirely. Indeed, IHS Jane’s quotes an industry source as saying that the working group is exploring various issues including the need for a multipurpose submarine that can operate in both deep and shallow waters, with its work being concluded in about a year.

Shallow waters
DCNS has repeatedly pointed out to the Indonesian government that the Scorpene 1000 is suitable for the country because most of its waters are shallow.

It is unclear how exactly this working group will affect Indonesia’s existing submarine plans. Indonesia already has ordered three South Korean submarines back in 2012 that are expected to arrive in 2017.

Jakarta had also previously indicated that it would procure two Kilo-class submarines from Russia, though there have been no reports thus far about the finalisation of a deal.

Indonesia’s neighbor Malaysia already has a pair of Scorpene-class submarines from France. DCNS also recently won the bid to build Australia’s new submarine fleet.

Prashanth Parameswaran is an associate editor of The Diplomat where this article was first published.

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