People’s National Congress party leader Peter O’Neill has blown the race for the Papua New Guinea prime minister’s job wide open by declaring he will not run for the country’s top post.

As the national election winds down and lobbying intensifies among Pangu Pati, People’s National Congress (PNC), United Resources Party (URP), People’s Progress Party (PPP) and the National Alliance (NA), the one-time prime minister O’Neill said his party would support an alternative prime minister candidate.

The bombshell from O’Neill is likely to shake up the Pangu camp on Loloata Island which contains several aspiring PM-minded politicians.

• READ MORE: Other PNG elections reports

O’Neill also appealed to the elected leaders to choose a prime minister who could heal the nation from the chaos that has plunged the country into election-related violence.

He wants to focus on Ialibu-Pangia and Southern Highlands and wants to give an opportunity to those who have been elected the right way to put their hands up.

“You will have my 100 percent support and I ask nothing special in return,” the former PM said yesterday.

O’Neill had gone to the election, vying to form government but the dismal performance of his PNC party may have forced his change of heart for the top job.

Not just about O’Neill or Marape
He said that the position of prime minister should not just be about O’Neill or Marape.

“Let me make it clear. I do not believe that I have a right to be the only alternative to Marape for the prime minister position.

“It was my greatest privilege to lead Papua New Guinea, but I recognise that we need to heal and move forward, and that the restoration may move faster when leaders listen to the will of the people,” he said.

“I encourage leaders who have been elected properly and who are genuinely interested in rescuing PNG from the economic and social chaos Marape has plunged the country into over the past three years, to consider putting their hand up for the top job.

“The role of prime minister should be filled by a person who has firstly been elected with integrity — who has been mandated by the people honestly.

“It is a critical junction for our young nation, and we urgently need a Papua New Guinean who has a vision for our country and who can pull the nation together and lead us forward.

He said there was a very worrying “fake government” which had fostered deep hatred under the Marape leadership that was tearing at the cohesion that had kept the country peaceful.

‘No celebrations’
“There are no celebrations around the country despite the apparently overwhelming election of Pangu candidates,” he said.

“Very strange, no one at all seems proud of their apparent chosen leaders, rather people are scared with no one to turn to with all avenues for justice closed off to the regular person.

“The national general election has magnified the level of violence, hatred, and unfairness in society and it is time for a leader to step forward who can bring peace and execute on clear policies.

“I am prepared to support alternative prime minister candidates as I and my party are prepared to do whatever it takes to rescue PNG,” he declared in Port Moresby.

“I can assure those who may contemplate being the next prime minister, that the propaganda coming from the locked and guarded at Kalabus Pangu (Loloata Resort) is not true.

“Leaders are worried the economy is in tatters. They are asking why our economy is performing so badly that the IMF has announced that they are opening a dedicated office in Port Moresby to monitor more closely the Treasury functions.”

O’Neill said the closure of the Porgera mine and the failure to move ahead in three years with any new major investments such as Wafi Golpu, along with massive borrowings and wastage had “shredded our financial position”.

He said genuine leaders did not want another five years like the last three.

“Our children are growing up thinking this violent society is normal,” he said.

“We now seem to be in freefall economically and socially and need to use this moment in time to reset ourselves and move forward with new leadership.”

Gorethy Kenneth is a PNG Post-Courier journalist. Republished with permission.

The ruling Pangu Pati has drawn first blood in the Papua New Guinea national general elections with its leader and deputy leader retaining their seats on first count alone.

Of the five seats declared as of yesterday, Pangu has a head start with four MPs, James Marape (Tari-Pori); John Rosso (Lae), Philip Undialu (Hela Regional), Manasseh Makiba (Magarima) and the lone People’s National Congress (PNC) winner to date Elias Kapavore (Pomio).

While it is early days in an election marred by violence and alleged fraud, Pangu’s early gain, is a tiny foothold in a process that is expected to be completed by the return of writs on July 29.

• READ MORE: Other PNG general election reports

At the time of going to press, three more declarations were expected last night or early today.

Marape remains caretaker Prime Minister with his deputy John Rosso also as caretaker deputy PM.

Marape picked up 40,913 votes to retain his seat by a landslide in the first count.

This was 12,000 more votes than the number he picked up in 2017.

Undialu wins big
Undialu picked up a staggering 118,131 votes to come home, which was 79,910 votes more than the number he scored in 2017 elections.

Meanwhile, in Lae, Morobe Province, incumbent John Rosso scored a convicing 26,818 of the primary votes to emerge winner from the total allowable ballots of 57,144.

“Lae Open seat deserves a transparent leader and its needs good precise leadership,” Rosso said soon after his declaration by the returning officer.

“For my people of Lae to give me the mandate on absolute majority of 26,818 on first count is humbling.

“I am going to perform to the best of my ability as the Lae MP and a national leader.”

In Hela Province, Manasseh Makiba picked up 10,481 votes to run out winner, beating the mark he set in 2017 national election by 2500 more votes, while Pomio MP Elias Kapavore was declared winner by Returning Officer John Liskia at Palmalmal.

Pomio had a total allowable 23,355 ballots and Kapavore was re-elected with an absolute majority vote of 11,949 votes from the primary count.

Three other electorates
Meanwhile, three other electorates expected to be declared last night or early today were the New Ireland Regional, Namatanai and Kavieng Open seats.

People’s Progress Party leader Sir Julius Chan had taken a comfortable lead with 25,101 votes.

Treasurer and Pangu Party candidate Ian Ling-Stuckey was leading with 6898 votes and National Alliance candidate and Civil Aviation Minister Walter Schnaubelt was expected to retain his Kavieng Open seat.

Counting in the rest of the provinces are continuing and the Post-Courier online news is bringing the latest updates for readers across the country.

Counting for National Capital District, Jiwaka, Western Highlands and Chimbu has not started.

Western Highlands, Jiwaka went to the polls on Friday while Chimbu polled yesterday.

Peter Korugl is a PNG Post-Courier journalist. Republished with permission.

It is often said that Papua New Guinea elections are fought on local issues, and this is no doubt the case. However, national issues have certainly featured prominently in this year’s election campaign in the run-up to voting, which started yesterday.

One of the striking features of this year’s election is the clear choice, at the national level, between James Marape, the incumbent PM and head of the Pangu Party, and Peter O’Neill, the PM before Marape, head of the People’s National Congress (PNC), and the person widely perceived to be Marape’s main rival for the top job.

Both have been putting out newspaper ads and press releases. Both — guaranteed of their own re-election — have been touring the nation trying to attract support for their candidates.

• READ MORE: Other PNG election reports

Each has ruled out joining forces with the other to form government after the election. (In PNG, a coalition government is inevitable.)

Marape was O’Neill’s Finance Minister, but these days there is no love lost between the two. Marape said recently, “Papua New Guineans either vote Pangu Pati back to continue its reconstructive work in rescuing the damaged national economy, or make the mistake of returning PNG to the hands of the People’s National Congress”.

O’Neill, for his part, accuses Marape of inexperience and a lack of achievement, saying, “This government lacks simple and basic knowledge and experience … to manage this country.”

Marape is running on his record, saying that O’Neill left the economy in a mess (“bleeding and struggling”, to use his famous line), and that, despite the additional havoc caused by covid-19, he has been busy leading a process of economic and budget recovery.

Much more transparent
There is certainly some truth to this. The Marape government has been much more transparent about the economy and budget, opening its books to the International Monetary Fund where O’Neill refused to do so.

One full-page ad taken out by Marape is titled “Marape Economic Record: Protect the Budget. Protect the Economy”. Another summarises his flagship “PNG Connect” road-building programme.

To the extent Marape does focus on policies, they are ones already implemented, or at least introduced. Policies highlighted by the PM in his interview with EMTV’s veteran journalist John Higgins include an increase in the tax-free income threshold, and support to help SME (small and medium enterprise) borrowing.

Marape continues to run hard on his “Take Back PNG” slogan. Here he is promising change, but of a very vague sort, committing in his EMTV interview to “change the resource laws framework completely”, while still reassuring investors that they will get a fair return.

O’Neill is also running on his record, defending his own, and critiquing Marape’s. His press release attacking Marape’s ad claimed that “the PNG economy has been ruined in three short years”.

However, O’Neill is also putting more emphasis on new policies, noting in his interview with Higgins the 14 policies approved at the recent PNC convention. These policies, which feature prominently on the PNC Facebook page, cover a wide range of issues, from political stability to public services reform, job creation to law and order, and investing in infrastructure.

One PNC policy is to abolish the system of loans for higher education that the Marape government has started to introduce. That would save the government money, but many of the PNC policies are expensive and unrealistic — for example, high schools for every local-level government, a bank for every district, and a nursing and teachers’ college for every province.

Vulnerability over Porgera
Marape’s major vulnerability in terms of his reputation as an economic manager relates to Porgera, the large gold mine that was closed in April 2020 shortly after its 30-year lease expired in 2019, and which, despite an agreement being reached for its reopening, is yet to do so.

The terms agreed for that reopening are said to be no more advantageous to PNG than those on offer before it closed.

O’Neill’s reputation as an economic manager is tarnished both by the country’s poor economic performance under his stewardship (formal sector employment and non-resource GDP per capita declined in most of the years he was PM), and by some spectacular cases of waste during his time as PM.

PNG lost US$100 million to the abandoned Solwara underwater mining project, and more than that through O’Neill’s UBS loan, labelled an “unnecessary disaster” by the Royal Commission Marape set up to investigate it.

Both sides blame the other for an increase in government debt. For the record, the debt to GDP ratio increased from 19 percent of GDP in 2012 to 40 percent in 2019 under O’Neill, and then to 52 percent of GDP in 2021 under Marape.

Trends in interest to GDP are also of interest. This variable increased over the same years from 1 percent to 2.6 percent of GDP under O’Neill, but has actually fallen since to 2.4 percent of GDP under Marape, who has been successful in securing highly concessional loans from development partners.

Each side also blames the other for allowing the exchange rate to depreciate. In fact, what matters is the real exchange rate, and this has not depreciated since the boom days of 2012, thereby preventing the economy from adjusting and leading to foreign currency rationing which has been a drag on growth.

A competitive currency
Even though the overwhelming majority of voters are rural and would benefit from a depreciation (earning more from their coffee sales, for example), a more competitive currency is one policy no politician wants to come anywhere near.

How influential this pre-election national jostling, positioning and posturing will be in the elections that started yesterday remains to be seen. As unlikely as it seems, one cannot rule out a third candidate for PM emerging post-elections.

But PNG citizens, if they want to make it the basis of their vote, do at least face a choice between two front-runners for the top job, and their two parties, and indeed between two economic narratives. That surely is a good thing.

Dr Stephen Howes is the director of the Development Policy Centre and a professor of economics at the Crawford School, Australian National University. Kingtau Mambon is an economics tutor at the University of Papua New Guinea School of Business and Public Policy (SBPP). This article was first published on the DevPolicy Blog and is republished under a Creative Commons licence.

Today is officially the last day of campaigning in Papua New Guinea’s 2022 National General Election.

Count tomorrow until Monday as rest days, but in politically charged PNG, anything is possible, including illegal last-minute clandestine campaigning.

Polling is set to begin Tuesday, July 4, when millions will exercise their democratic right at the polls to elect their 118 MPs.

• READ MORE: Other PNG election reports

The exercise has been tainted by violence, mainly in the Highlands, and allegations of ballot tampering, but this has not discouraged the will of the people to get over this election.

“Wok Mas Go Het Yet” (Work must go on) has been the nationalistic slogan from patriotic Papua New Guineans who see it as their duty to fulfil their electoral obligations by overturning the results of 2017.

The 2022 national ballot will be a game changer for a country that has seen and experienced more upheavals in the past 5 years then any other time in its 47 years of independence.

Since the issue of writs on May 29, poll watchers have predicted a titanic struggle between the two main political parties PANGU (Green), led by incumbent Prime Minister James Marape and People’s National Congress (Red), led by former PM Peter O’Neill.

Red versus Green ‘armies’
Both the PNC Red Army of O’Neill and the PANGU Green Army of Marape have been at loggerheads in various campaign locations but the real test will come down to the wire on polling day.

Who will muster the numbers to gain power when the writs are returned on July 29?

Here is our analysis, based on our political coverage since last year, and based on analysis of the 2017 election results.

There have been many insights released and floated by scientists, political analysts, geologists and even by table mamas, wannabe “glassman” (sorcerers) and journalists on their bets.

The political landscape has been divided between Marape and O’Neill, though there may be other leaders like opposition leader Belden Namah, Patrick Pruaitch, William Duma, Sir John Pundari and the ‘Last Knight Standing’, Sir Julius Chan, who are contenders for this coming election.

However, all eyes are on the resource-rich provinces of Southern Highlands (O’Neill) and Hela (Marape).

This tectonic fracture was clearly evident in November 2020 when O’Neill tried sponsoring a vote of no confidence and he funded the Vanimo Camp, but Marape’s Loloata camp won that contest.

‘Take Back PNG’ mantra
The divide is obvious. Marape has mostly those who are first and second term MPs who are inclined to the “Take Back PNG” mantra and the philosophies behind it, while O’Neill had his old school politicians who all dreamed to be PM some day with the likes of Namah, Pundari, Charles Abel, Davis Steven, Powes Parkop, Sir Julius, Duma and Nick Kuman to name a few.

And as the nation goes into polls in three days time, this divide of the two classes of politicians still remains with the emerging heavyweights yet to show their power.

However, a “dark horse” in the shadows might emerge where we could see the rise of Enga if the battle of the Southern Highlanders does not work according to plan.

While it will be anybody’s game and being in the land of the unexpected, if the trend of the last elections where the ruling party returns to form government (National Alliance in 2007, People’s National Congress in 2012 and 2017) then it should be PANGU in 2022, but will they have the numbers to form government?

While some are sure of victory and already counting their eggs with the grand announcement of coalitions, others are holding their cards close to their chest like a true poker grandmaster.

This is the newspaper’s political projection from the election team at the PNG Post-Courier which will focus on the political party seats likely to win when polling starts on Tuesday.

Election projections
We project that of the 111 MPs in the last five years, 55 percent of sitting MPs will most likely lose their seats in this year’s 2022 National General Election.

Based on the 2017 NGE results, the sitting MPs who we project will not return are those that have scored less than 10 percent of total votes in their first count, and MPs that scored between 10– 20 percent in their first count are at extreme risks of losing their seats.

So these two categories make up about 55 percent of the sitting MPs, which translates to 57-60 MPs who most likely will not return.

To predict the number of seats to be won by each political party, we will use the simple winning percentage technique of each political party in 2017 to predict the potential wins for 2022 seats.

We will adjust for new political parties and also adjust for the PANGU Pati as it is going into this election as the ruling party.

We will also look at the main political parties and the independents and review each political party in 2017 versus the number of candidates each party endorsed in 2017 and the current 2022.

The independents make up 40 percent of the candidate list for 2022 among 53 political party endorsed candidates.

‘Dark horse’ parties
Then we have the “dark horse” parties that we will also talk about including their party leaders.

At the start of this election, PANGU went in with 40 but were down to 38 sitting MPs (2 had died) and the PNC was next with 15, NA 8, URP and ULP (less than 8 MPs).

The 2017 election results detailed that PNC had the highest winning numbers with 29 seats, National Alliance with 15 seats and PANGU and URP both returned 10 seats.

The rest had 5 seats or below with the exception of Independents that won 13 seats.

The tentative projections for the top five political parties and the independents for 2022:

• PNC endorsed 95 candidates in 2017, won 29 seats, a 31 percent win rate and in 2022 our projection is that of their 97 endorsed, 32 are likely to win.
• PANGU endorsed 69 in 2017, won only 10 seats, a 14 percent win rate and in 2022 they have endorsed 81 candidates 2022. Projection: 20 seats likely to win.
• United Resource Party (URP) endorsed 34 in 2017 and won 10 seats, a 29 percent win rate. In 2022, of 49 endorsed candidates, projected to win 14 seats.
• National Alliance Party (NA) endorsed 73 candidates in 2017, won 15 seats, a 21 per cent win rate. In 2022, they have 63 candidates; they will likely win 12 seats.
• PNG Party (PNGP) endorsed 87 candidates in 2017, won 4 seats for a 5 percent win rate. In 2022, they have endorsed 84; our projection is that they will win 5 seats again.
• The Independents had 1921 candidates in 2017 and won 13 seats, a 1 percent win rate. In 2022, they increased to 1500 and our projection is that they will win 10 seats.
• Of the women candidates, we expect a strong woman rally and predict a 5 seat mandate.

Republished with permission.

Three major parties have emerged as frontrunners to form the next government in Papua New Guinea with their party leaders eager to be next Prime Minister.

These are current coalition leader PANGU, headed by incumbent Prime Minister James Marape, opposition leader Belden Namah’s PNG Party and the People’s National Congress led by former prime minister Peter O’Neill.

These leaders and the parties have invested heavily in their campaign and candidates for next month’s general election. They are using strategic campaigning including social media outreach to network with supporters in the rural areas.

• READ MORE: Other PNG elections reports

It is always a numbers game.

The party that wins the most seats gets the invite to form the next government with its leader the most likely Prime Minister.

But politics in PNG is fluid and smaller parties with critical numbers often hold sway over formations of government.

Eleventh hour horse trading in the past has always featured prominently with the formations of government and smaller parties would also be riding shotgun with the bigger parties.

Three-way race
If anything, this is a three-way horse race with each party trying by any means on the campaign track to derail the other, even to the extent of attacking opponents, setting fire to their posters, and burning their properties.

All three leaders have been hot around the country, shopping their candidates to the voters, selling policies and even discrediting other parties, bringing in tension along the way.

PANGU’s James Marape is confident of returning to form government in the next Parliament and says he will step down if otherwise.

“I am taking the government formation to Wewak and taking all members who win and we will form the government there,” declared Marape.

Pangu is banking on 75 candidates for this election and Marape has travelled over four provinces to support their candidates.

Vocal opposition leader Belden Namah has also openly put up his hands to become Prime Minister after 15 years on the other bench.

“I am serious in the business to be Prime Minister of PNG after this election,” said Namah, who is leader of the PNG Party, which has endorsed a total of 50 candidates.

Ready to lead
Namah added he had never raised his hands for the role in respect of late Sir Michael Somare but now he was ready to lead the country forward.

Another strong contender is former Prime Minister Peter O’Neill, leader of the People’s National Congress party, who has fielded 95 candidates contesting various seats across the country.

O’Neill has made it clear that the PNC party is ready to return to power.

He reportedly said that he and the PNC party was poised to return to government and “rescue” the country.

He said: “The new government needs to work harder… with a clear mandate to a political party with policies to deliver to the people and the country.

“To date, only PNC party has put [out] our policies, which are aimed at delivering basic services to our people and improving living standards.”

Other credible leaders
But while all eyes are on Marape, Namah and O’Neill, there are other credible leaders who just may be the new Prime Minister after the elections are over.

National Alliance Party leader Patrick Pruaitch, currently deputy PM, may have a chance, having been part of the two most recent coalition governments. For this election NA has endorsed a 59 candidates.

Other leaders like Powes Parkop, William Duma and Don Polye are also in running for the role having expressed their intentions.

While all these leaders vie for this top post, the one that comes through with the most numbers will be invited by the Governor-General to form the government.

The Papua New Guinea general election is on July 2-22.

Republished with permission.

Papua New Guinea’s People’s National Congress is shaping up as the party to watch as the country’s general election approaches.

Nominations are set to finish later today with campaigning then in earnest through to early July when voting starts.

The Peoples’ National Congress (PNC) is led by Peter O’Neill who lost the prime ministership to James Marape in 2019.

The party, of which Marape was also once a member, had dominated PNG politics for the previous eight years.

RNZ Pacific’s PNG correspondent Scott Waide said the PNC had endorsed more than 90 candidates which has created a force to reckon with.

“Ninety candidates all over the country means that there is a higher possibility of PNC banking on its chances to get the members into parliament,” he said.

“PANGU has also put out a list of candidates. Surprisingly a lot of women in the PANGU group – at least five I think.”

Waide said the party of the late deputy prime minister, Sam Basil, the United Labour Party (ULP) is also shaping up to do well in this poll.

The PNG Parliament is larger than before, with the addition of seven new seats taking it to 118 members.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Central to the selection of the prime minister in Papua New Guinea following a general election is Section 63 of PNG’s Organic Law on Integrity of Political Parties and Candidates (OLIPPAC), which was passed in 2001 (and then amended in 2003).

Section 63 requires that the Governor-General invites the party with the highest number of MPs following a general election to form the government.

The main aim of the section is to ensure that the appointment of a prime minister after a general election is done in an “orderly way with direct relationship to the way voters expressed their wishes”.

• READ MORE: Other PNG elections reports

Analysis shows that the passage of OLIPPAC has influenced government formation. First, it has increased the probability that, as is now a legislative requirement, the PM comes from the largest party.

This has happened in all elections since OLIPPAC was legislated (2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017), but only happened in two out of the five pre-OLIPPAC elections (1977 and 1982).

For example, as Table 1 shows, in 1997 the People’s National Congress Party (PNC) had the sixth highest number of MPs but still was able to put forward the successful candidate for PM.

Second, Section 63 also seems to have increased the odds of an incumbent PM being returned. Since the first post-independence election in 1977, five incumbent prime ministers have been re-appointed as PM following one of the country’s nine national elections (see Table 2).

Two developments closely related
The other four times a new prime minister was appointed post-elections. The five times the incumbent was returned are 1977 (Somare), 1987 (Wingti), 2007 (Somare), 2012 (O’Neill) and 2017 (O’Neill). Only two of the five incumbent returns are before the first enactment of OLIPPAC in 2001, and the other three are all post-OLIPPAC.

These two developments are closely related. Over the life of the Parliament, MPs tend to join the party of the PM, meaning that that party goes into the election with by far the largest number of MPs. For instance, PNC won 27 seats in 2012, led by the incumbent PM Peter O’Neill, and formed the government.

More MPs joined PNC, and by the time the 2017 elections came around, PNC had 55 MPs. Even though PNC lost 34 sitting MPs, with only 21 getting re-elected, it added seven new MPs in the 2017 elections.

This took PNC’s numbers to 28 MPs, and, after the 2017 elections, it wound up forming the government.

About half the incumbent MPs don’t get re-elected every election, but in general voters do not vote along party lines. Even if they do, and even if there is a swing against the PM’s party, because it has such an advantage going in, it is likely to emerge as the largest party as well.

In 2010, the Supreme Court ruled the restrictions imposed by OLIPPAC on the movement of MPs between parties unconstitutional. This means that MPs can move parties in the period between when they are declared winners following the national election and the appointment of the PM.

What happened in 1987, 1992 and 1997 — when parties with fewer MPs formed the government — could be repeated, Section 63 notwithstanding. All MPs would need to do is submit their letter of resignation to the party that endorsed them for the election, together with a letter of acceptance from the new party they intend to join, to the Registry of Political Parties and Candidates before the election of the PM, and their movement to the new party would become official.

Little incentive to leave
However, we have not seen that happening. This is because there is little incentive for MPs in the largest party to leave if it is likely to become the party of government. Rather, other MPs will join, by joining either the largest party or the governing coalition.

The only incumbent PM not to benefit from the passage of OLIPPAC was, ironically, its architect, Sir Mekere Morauta. He did not go into the election with the largest party, and he certainly did not emerge from it with the largest either.

This should remind us that there is no guarantee that the incumbent PM will be returned post-election. But it does seem that Section 63 has had the unintended consequence of increasing the probability of this happening.

Most view stability as a good thing, but the problem is that the more likely the incumbent is to be returned at the general election, the more pressure there will be to remove him (or perhaps one day her) by a vote of no confidence – since that becomes the only way to do it.

It may be no coincidence that both PMs who have so far benefited from Section 63 (Somare in 2002 and 2007 and O’Neill in 2012 and 2017) lost power mid-term on the floor of Parliament.

Note that the provisions of Section 63 of OLIPPAC do not apply to a vote of no confidence. In a vote of no confidence, any political party (or MP) is eligible to nominate a candidate to contest for the prime minister’s seat. Even an MP without a political party is eligible to be nominated for the PM’s post.

Section 63 was passed with good intentions, but has led to a situation in which increasing stability either side of elections may be reducing it between elections.

Michael Kabuni is a lecturer in political science at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Papua New Guinea. Dr Stephen Howes is the Director of the Development Policy Centre and a Professor of Economics at the Crawford School. This research was undertaken with the support of the ANU-UPNG Partnership, an initiative of the PNG-Australia Partnership, funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The views are those of the authors only.

Pacific Media Centre Newsdesk

All five MPs from Sandaun province have now joined Papua New Guinea’s breakaway camp at Port Moresby’s Laguna Hotel after the return of Sandaun Governor Tony Wouwou.

Wearing a Trukai Fun Run t-shirt, Wouwou appeared quite jovial as he was welcomed by other MPs into the leadership crisis camp.

And the breakaway camp now believe they have the numbers to oust Prime Minister Peter O’Neill as the rival groups shape up for the no-confidence vote this week.

READ MORE: PNGi investigates corruption, networks and the issues

About 1000 extra police are reportedly being deployed in the capital for tomorrow.

Scott Waide of EMTV News reported last night that during the past week Wouwou had been attacked and ridiculed on social media after he had initially appeared in an opposition news conference.

Then later – on the same day – Wouwou declared that he was a “diehard member” of O’Neill’s ruling People’s National Congress (PNC).

“We have the member for Vanimo Green, the member for Aitape-Lumi, the Member for Nuku and now we have the Governor,” former Defence Minister Solan Mirisim said in the news conference.

Consent needed
“I am here as the Member for Telefomin.”

Various MPs, including East Sepik Governor Allan Bird, defended Wouwou, saying he needed to seek consent from his people before officially moving to the opposition.

Vanimo-Green MP Belden Namah, who did a head count this afternoon, said the camp now had two-thirds of the governors in the country.

He added that it was a sizable figure that expressed how provinces were feeling, reported EMTV’s Waide.

Wouwou’s arrival this afternoon now adds one more MP to the camp, taking the total to 58. Fifty seven MPs are needed to defeat O’Neill’s government in the 111-member Haus of Parliament.

Earlier at the weekend, seven members of the Pangu Pati – PNG’s first and oldest political party founded by Sir Michael Somare – had joined the breakaway camp led by former Finance Minister James Marape who quit O’Neill’s government last month.

Soon after resigning from Pangu, the MPs were welcomed at Laguna by Marape and other leaders.

Not managed well
Speaking on their behalf, Central Governor Robert Agarobe said their stand was to change government leadership.

Morobe Governor Ginson Sinou said the country had not been managed well despite the vast mineral and forestry resources available.

Sinou said this was the time to stop the current leadership for the good of the nation.

Carmella Gware of Loop PNG reported that Deputy Prime Minister Charles Abel said the PNC support “remains solid”.

Addressing the media on Saturday evening at the Crown Hotel, in the presence of Milne Bay Governor John Luke Crittin, Abel stressed the PNC’s teamwork “despite our good brothers leaving us”.

“We certainly take on board all those issues that were raised by our brothers and issues that were raised by myself,” he said.

‘Understanding attitude’
“And I’m so thankful that the party and our Prime Minister has the understanding attitude that they have, we go forward together, we take on those issues, and as a team, we continue to respond to those issues.”

RNZ Pacific’s Johnny Blades reported opposition MPs were “quietly confident” that they had the momentum to remove O’Neill as his government “reels from a series of resignations”.

He said the opposition Laguna Hotel camp was offering an “open door” for any more government MPs who wished to join their bid to remove the prime minister.

• Five ministers quit O’Neill government

After two weeks of controversy, Pangu Pati leader Sam Basil and most of his party have split with Papua New Guinea’s Opposition and defected to Prime Minister Peter O’Neill’s post-election government, consolidating the People’s National Congress hold on Parliament.

In spite of repeated denials by Basil, Prime Minister O’Neill announced the defection yesterday afternoon, reports Loop PNG’s Annette Kora.

Basil defected with all 11 Pangu MPs from Morobe Province, including Central Province, Sohe and Lufa.

The defection has been widely condemned on social media and Papua New Guinea blogs as a “betrayal” and Oro Province Governor Gary Juffa made an impassioned plea in a video message appealing to fellow Opposition MPs to continue to work responsibly in Parliament for “the interests of all Papuan New Guineans” and not just a few.

Just four Pangu Pati MPs, including former Prime Minister Sir Mekere Morauta (Port Moresby North West), refused to defect and have remained with the Opposition.

ABC News correspondent Eric Tlozek reports Basil was one of the O’Neill government’s most outspoken critics, and his successful grassroots campaign wiped out senior government MPs in his home province of Morobe.

But Basil said he had to respect the Prime Minister’s mandate, Tlozek reports.

“So all I can say is that Papua New Guineans have chosen the government, now we make our choice to join PNC.”

ABC also reports Basil has also filed a criminal complaint against rival members of his party executive who challenged his move, alleging they stole party funds.

The defection helps secure O’Neill’s grip on government, and the Prime Minister praised Basil and the defecting Pangu Pati MPs.

• Other PNG stories

My advice for Papua New Guinea’s new MPs and their staff, minions, hangers on and supporters …

Some words about the middle bench.

It’s a myth.

I should know. I was there believing that myth for the first two years of the last term of Parliament.

The middle bench IS government.

I attended government caucus from time to time and made critical reviews of government decisions. If you are allowed to attend government caucus…you ARE government.

Why did I not choose the Opposition at that time?

Because I believed the myth of the “Middle Bench” …

Little difference
And I saw little difference in either side at that time…with the government seeming to be a slightly better option. I hoped I could do more to influence government decisions for the better. How wrong I was. The benefit of hindsight has since proved otherwise.

Well at that time both government and opposition seemed like bad choices, just flipsides of the same coin, and I honestly thought there was a special place in Parliament for neutral ground or a Third Way from government or opposition.

Well, I was wrong. I was naive.

FACT: “There is no neutral ground”.

Surprise surprise, there is no middle bench!

Anyway my continued critical review of the decisions made by Prime Minister Peter O’Neill’s People’s National Congress (PNC) government were pissing many off … so eventually I was removed.

That’s right, by the ruling party PNC. As I said, some of their members resented the critical review I provided. They despised my outspokenness on national issues and questioning their self interest in most decisions.

They lobbied hard and when the ruling party met and decided unanimously to kick me out. That’s right. They can do that. Which means they are in control of that part of Parliament.

‘Don’t make trouble’ message
Which means the middle bench is a myth!

Soon after I was quietly asked by a government MP to inform the government I wished to remain and would not make trouble.

If I could do this, I could stay but must remain mute and support all government decisions..good or bad.

So I decided to move to Opposition.

See I felt I was elected to speak for my people. All of Papua New Guinea. Not be a puppet and follow others blindly even when they were wrong.

So I left.

It now dawned on me that the middle bench … was only in my head … not in reality … so if you are there…you are in government..

And if they hold control over that area, they own that territory. You are their territory. You can pretend and be quiet and they will allow that pretence to be projected to the people. But speak up too often … then you will see who has control over that area and you will soon see that you are there at their will and whim.

All the best.

Gary Juffa is an Opposition MP in the Papua New Guinea Parliament and Governor of Oro province. He contributes occasional articles to Asia Pacific Report.

• Five MPs join the PANGU opposition

With time running out before the official end of Papua New Guinea’s elections, partners of the Peter O’Neill-led coalition government are counting the casualties from election results all over the country.

Four senior ministers, the Speaker and the Deputy Prime Minister have all lost their jobs.

The Health Minister is also expected to follow suit.

Housing Minister Paul Isikel was the first to be excluded during second preference counts in Markham Open, losing to Pangu’s Koni Iguan.

Within 24 hours, news came from Tewai-Siassi that political novice Dr Kobie Bomareo had unseated Fisheries Minister and Deputy Leader of the ruling People’s National Congress, Mao Zeming. Bomareo was the third Pangu candidate declared in a space of two days.

Then, in a tight finish, a 30-year-old unknown, Renbo Paita, took down another PNC strongman, Speaker of Parliament Theo Zurenuoc.

The carnage continued.

Biggest upset
Mining Minister Byron Chan lost the Namatanai seat to Walter Schnaubelt. But in the biggest upset in the New Guinea Islands region, Deputy Prime Minister Leo Dion suffered an embarrassing defeat, beaten in the second preference counts by former MP Nakikus Konga.

Within minutes of Dion’s defeat, Facebook users were posting that the Communications Minister Jimmy Miringtoro had lost the Central Bougainville seat.

As heads of coalition members rolled all over the country, Health Minister Michael Malabag’s political life hung in the balance, slowly stifled by an ever expanding 7000 vote margin separating him from former Prime Minister Sir Mekere Morauta in the Moresby North West race.

In Morobe, the home province of the Deputy Opposition leader, Sam Basil, voters went to the polls with a vengeance and rejected the PNC in five out of nine seats.

But Pangu ranks are further expected to be bolstered with the possible inclusion of Ginson Saonu who is leading in the Morobe regional count with a 20,000 vote margin separating him from former National Alliance “fullback” Luther Wenge.

The incumbent, Kelly Naru has also become one of many other MPs rejected at the polls. He is bearing the brunt of voter anger after his support of the PNC led coalition during the attempted vote of no confidence motion in 2016.

Serious contender trailing
In the Northern province, PNC’s David Arore, who expected to be a serious contender in the regional seat has been trailing on fourth place.

Arch political rival Gary Juffa, moved rapidly up the ladder within the first three days giving him a commanding 30,000 vote lead ahead of his nearest rival and wife of NCD Governor Powes Parkop, Jean Parkop.

While the losses stung the PNC, their numbers were at the weekend double those of Pangu. Both parties are working to woo independents with Pangu pushing the anti-corruption line while PNC was claiming “government stability”.

Scott Waide is the Lae bureau chief and began his career with EMTV in 1997 as a news and sports reporter and anchor. He has been a media professional for more than 19 years. EMTV News coverage of the PNG elections is being published by Asia Pacific Report with permission.

• More PNG election stories

Pacific Media Watch News Desk

The largest crowd ever to attend an election campaign rally on Manus greeted Prime Minister Peter O’Neill as he campaigned with Manus Governor Charlie Benjamin and Manus Open candidate Job Pomat, reports EMTV News.

Leading the People’s National Congress (PNC) campaign rally, O’Neill said Manus had great potential from its marine resources, particularly in areas such as fisheries and tourism.

As the campaign draws to the end of eight weeks of campaigning, O’Neill said yesterday now was the time for candidates who had not demonstrated any policy platforms to reveal if they have any policies.

“Now is the time to talk about your policies, to talk about your vision and reveal if you have anything to offer,” the Prime Minister said.

“Candidates need to discuss issues of national importance with a clear set of polices and vision for the nation.

“Instead many, particularly some former leaders, are dropping down to attacking personalities and spreading rumours.

“Our country deserves strong policy platforms from those aspiring to form government, not hollow statements and foolish claims.

‘Start being realistic’
“The candidates who are now part of one-and-two-man parties have to start being realistic.

“You have Sir Mekere [Morauta] saying he will be PM, and so is Don Polye, and Sam Basil, and all the others, but one-and-two is a long way from 56.”

The Prime Minister said he has no intention of debating with any aspirant PM if they could not demonstrate that they had the support of enough opposition members.

“I am not going to waste my time debating someone who does not have the support to potentially lead a parliamentary majority.

“If one of these opposition leaders gets the backing of their counterparts to be the opposition’s candidate for prime minister, they will get their debate.

“If Ben Micah, Patrick Pruaitch, and Belden Namah, and all the other leaders come out and say publicly they are supporting Don Polye, or another leader, they will get their debate.

“But while they are a loose gaggle of dividend group of rivals, this will not happen.”

Western eyes ‘a mistake’
The Prime Minister said the mistake some commentators made was to look at the PNG  election through Western eyes.

“In Australia, historically opposition leaders are often just a few seats away from forming government.

“In Papua New Guinea, the Opposition Leader is more than 50 seats away from forming government.

“The same goes for Mekere, he is just one of the 3000 plus candidates in this election.

“He has no party support, he is yesterday’s man who abandoned his own party that he founded. He has no principles or loyalty, so why would any of the opposition leaders want to follow him?”

The Prime Minister thanked Manus for the hospitality they extended to the PNC delegation and promised them that Charlie Benjamin and Job Pomat would work hard for Manus and further improve lives.

“Manus has huge potential in tourism and fisheries, and has the potential to keep advancing.

“A lot has changed in Manus over the past five years, and communities are economically stronger than in decades past.

“We must keep changing Manus, we must keep staying strong and deliver an even stronger economy for our nation and for provinces like Manus.”

The current Papua New Guinea government is being accused of being the most corrupt in the short history of Papua New Guinea. It has tampered with the national constitution, bent it, or even created new laws to escape being held responsible and avoided passing tougher legislation to fight corruption.

It’s so sad — a sad scenario for Papua New Guinea indeed.

Before going into the 2012 general election, Prime Minister Peter O’Neill promised the nation that he would curb corruption. He set up the Investigation Task Force Sweep (ITFS) which has done an excellent job exposing and prosecuting corruption.

But why did O’Neill disband it? Why did Police Commissioner Garry Baki put a “vetting” on the high-profile investigations cases that include accusations against O’Neill?

At the 2012 Alotau Accord, the governing coalition partners pledged to table in the Parliament the Anti-money Laundering Legislation, Whistleblowers Legislation, Freedom of Information Legislation and Independent Commission against Corruption Act (ICAC).

But during the People’s National Congress (PNC) reign from 2012 to 2017 with its coalition partners, none of these laws have got passed in the Parliament as promised during the election pledges to fight corruption.

Instead, O’Neill sees fit to legislate a Cyber-Crime Law and even proposing amendments to change election dates and nomination fees.

‘Sitting’ on whistleblowers law
Several times the Opposition have blasted the government for “sitting” on the Whistleblowers Protection Act and not tabling it in Parliament.

Even National Court Justice Martin Ipang spoke of the need for the Whistleblowers Act in the courtroom when ruling on Western Governor Ati Wobiro’s case.

Citizens needed to be protected if they have heard about corruption, or if they seen it, or if they become victim of corruption and want to report this.

Papua New Guinea needs the Whistleblowers Act. This is a very important law for PNG together with the ICAC. But the PNC-led government has failed and fooled the nation.

A new government that will be formed after the 2017 elections must see to ensure these laws are enacted.

People would be asking why time and again “most corrupt” politicians are not exposed and brought to justice.

Here is an answer from one politician with his observation. Samuel Basil, a two-term Bulolo MP says: “PNC’s best bet (if they lose government) is to have another veteran MP’s political party to take reign.

“Why? Because it’s like having partners in crime taking control over once again, or simply put it, it is corruption changing hands.

“If they bring their brothers down they will all go down together, it’s like they all have been closely knitted together.”

Only fresh new MPs without any connections with the current and past regimes can clean this country up — there is no other way.

There has to be a “scrubbing” period. Citizens from all walks of life need to face the judiciary to “clear” anything against them.

Your vote in 2017 means, “save PNG, or destroy it”. Over to you.

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