The swearing in of Labour list MP Soraya Peke-Mason to Parliament on October 25 will mark a milestone for women in Aotearoa New Zealand.

For the first time in its history, women in New Zealand’s Parliament will have an equal share of seats in the House.

“That’s quite significant,” Peke-Mason said. “It really shows the maturity of Aotearoa in terms of equity from a gender perspective.”

• READ MORE: Reports on the NZ local body elections

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said reaching the milestone was “significant and heartening”.

“Our Parliament will always be better when the diversity of voices in New Zealand are heard in our law making and government.

“The Labour Party in particular has been deeply committed to having equality of representation within our own caucus and we are really excited to welcome Soraya to our team.”

Peke-Mason will also be the first MP sworn in by the new Speaker, her cousin Te Tai Hauāuru MP Adrian Rurawhe, and the first new MP pledging allegiance to the new king, Charles III.

Sworn in with Te Reo
Representing the Rangitīkei electorate and supported by kaumātua and whānau from the river and mountain tribes and Rangitīkei, she will be sworn in at 2pm, in Te Reo Māori, and will give her maiden speech at 5.45pm.

“It is an honour and a privilege to be going to Parliament to represent our rohe,” Peke-Mason said.

“Over the last one or two decades my work has taken me across the Whanganui, the Ruapehu and the Rangitīkei districts.

“I’m excited and proud to be able to represent our rohe, and for Te Awa Tupua, for Rangitīkei, for all of us to have another strong voice at a table that makes really important and hard decisions on behalf of Aotearoa.”

It is two years since Peke-Mason missed out at the 2020 election. Her elevation to Parliament was announced in June after news that Kris Faafoi would leave politics and Trevor Mallard would move on to a diplomatic posting.

Peke-Mason, who lives at Rātana south of Whanganui, was Rangitīkei’s first wahine Māori councillor for 12 years until 2019, when she unsuccessfully ran for Horizons Regional Council.

In 2020, she stood in the general election in Rangitīkei against incumbent Ian McKelvie and was ranked No 60 on the Labour list.

‘You just get on with it’
“After the results of the last election, there was a possibility that I could enter Parliament but you just get on with it. You leave that there to the side and you just get on with your mahi at home.”

She was appointed to the Whanganui District Health Board and to its Hauora ā Iwi Relationship Board. She also helped lead the Whanganui Māori Regional Tourism board, was a member of Rangitīkei District Council’s Te Roopu Ahi Kā and held a number of iwi Māori and Māori trust governance roles.

“I’ve had plenty of time to be able to exit the work that I’ve been doing in the rohe, to tidy up those loose ends, to finish up projects properly, look at replacements, and work with Māori authorities that I’ve done work for to ensure there’s an appropriate exit process so that they’re not left in the lurch,” she said.

“And I’ve also been able to exit some of the boards I’ve been on.

“I’ve been lucky to have the time to do that. Not every MP gets that time.”

Public Interest Journalism funded through NZ On Air.

After previous calls for the Samoan Parliament to convene so a national budget can be passed, the ruling FAST Party now says there is no real need to rush to convene Parliament.

Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa said last Saturday that Parliament would meet “in the first opportunity” this week to pass a budget.

The Samoa Observer reports Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa as saying cabinet needs more time to screen and review the financial arrangements used by the former government of Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi and his Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP).

• READ MORE: Other Samoan democracy reports

The Ministry of Finance was instructed to prepare a budget using an article that allows 25 percent of the previous budget to operate until a full budget is prepared for Parliament to pass.

The Tuilaepa government had been using this provision since the 2020/2021 budget ended on 30 June which amounts to about 220 million tālā.

According to Fiame, wiith 25 percent, there is a figure, but there is a lack of supporting details even though the processes seemed to be followed for payments under the Emergency Budget.

She explained that the Ministry of Finance wanted cabinet to use the budget they have prepared and announced by the caretaker prime minister last month.

“We still want our own Budget to deliver what the FAST Party has in place in its manifesto,” said Fiamē.

Fiame said Parliament would likely meet in September.

Meanwhile, a FAST spokesperson says the legitimacy of the HRPP candidates who were not sworn-in within the required 45 days is still being determined as it has never happened before.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

The five reserved seats for women being put forward by Papua New Guinea’s special parliamentary committee on gender-based violence has been rejected by women and a petition is on its way to demand different proposal.

The women will petition the parliamentary committee to voice their disapproval about the five reserved seats idea and raise other related concerns.

Women in Politics president Maria Hayes told the Post-Courier that women represented half the population of the country and women leaders took offence that an attempt was being made to sideline them.

• READ MORE: Other gender issue articles in PNG

“Talk about gender-based violence!” Hayes said. “It is an insult.

“Women represent 50 percent of the country’s population; we do not have to stand on the side to be considered whether we are good or not.

“Parliament is mixing up gender-based violence with women in leadership which are two different issues.

“There is no structure in place so it is a farce; an election gimmick to lure women’s votes in next year’s national general election.”

The women are firm over their demand for 22 reserved seats and expressed disappointment that women in leadership was being narrowed down to gender-based violence.

They envisaged women’s decision-making in Parliament to be of much broader scope, encompassing all other areas of law-making and implementation.

They point to previous work done on temporary special measures in which women advocates believed being elected rather than having appointed seats to be the best way forward.

Under such a scheme, which they supported, 22 seats would be reserved for women.

This, they said, was the demand for women in PNG and they stood by it.

The idea currently being mooted is five reserved seats for women on the basis of region.

But PNG has four regions – the Highlands, Mamose, Southern and the Islands – which means there is a proposal to split Southern in half.

Barney Orere is a PNG Post-Courier journalist.

Today, Deputy Prime Minister Sam Basil and 12 other ministers in Papua New Guinea’s James Marape government crossed the floor to support former prime minister Peter O’Neill and opposition leader Belden Namah’s bid to move a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister James Marape.

A total of 41 members from the government side crossed to join Namah and O’Neill and provide them the 57 votes required (majority is 56) to take control of Parliament business and change the Permanent Parliament Committee members to ensure their planned notice of a no confidence vote makes its way to the floor of Parliament.

• READ MORE: Papua New Guinea stands by for new government after MPs abandon James Marape
• PNG’s deputy PM and other MPs cross the floor
• PM James Marape: ‘It’s not over’
• Fresh political turmoil in PNG

So was this expected?

Short answer is Yes.

Behind the scenes, I have been tracking the likes of Basil, William Duma, Charles Abel, Sir Puka Temu, Sir Julius Chan, Paias Wingti, and Chris Haiveta, expecting them to make a play for a change of Prime Minister.

I was very much aware that Basil was in secret talks with O’Neill and Namah, who were so desperate to change the government that they would mislead Basil into crossing the floor.

Basil believes he will be the next Prime Minister; so does Chan and O’Neill.

PM Marape informed
I brought this issue to the attention of Prime Minister Marape on numerous occasions so he would be informed on the what was going on behind the scenes.

However, he wanted to believe that both Basil and Duma would stay loyal to the government because he afforded their parties’ every request.

57 MPs voted with the Opposition today. Opposition has numbers to change PM.

39 MPs voted with PM. PM claims to have 52 supporting him.

57 + 52 = 109 MPs, Two MPs unaccounted for in #PNG‘s vote of No Confidence numbers game pic.twitter.com/rd74TV1XHe

— MARTYN AWAYANG NAMORONG (@MartynNamorong) November 13, 2020

While I note some will say this is a lie because I said there would be no vote of no confidence in the November session, I was factually correct. The November session is over, and Parliament is now adjourned to December 2020.

What is the play?

Right now, I still don’t believe there will be a vote of no confidence. More importantly, the motion for a vote can’t be moved for another four weeks.

Eighteen days from now – on Tuesday, 1 December 2020 – Parliament reconvenes. The Opposition will submit its notice of a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Marape to the Speaker.

The notice must be signed by no less than 12 members and name the next Prime Minister (which is not yet decided).

Naming ‘next PM’
On Wednesday, 2 December 2020, at 1pm, the Speaker and Permanent Parliament Committee will meet to table the notice and confirm it is in order, meeting the constitutional requirements of no less than 12 members signatories and naming the next PM.

Provided the notice is in order, the Speaker will direct the Clerk of Parliament to list the notice on the Parliament Notice Paper.

The next day, on Thursday, 3 December 2020, Parliament will reconvene. The Speaker will announce that he received the notice of the no confidence vote from the opposition and adjourn Parliament for seven days.

On Thursday, 10 December 2020, Parliament will reconvene to deal with the motion of no confidence.

So, folks, that’s almost one month away and right now Basil, O’Neill and Namah have only 59 Members, which they have to keep intact until the day of the vote.

In the meantime, the Marape government needs only to wait around for five members to realize they were badly misled, and that it wasn’t such a great idea to cross the floor. The public will also weigh in, ending their re-election bid in 2022.

Struggle to stay together
What is certain is that most, if not all, politicians will struggle to stay in camp for seven days, let alone one month.

It is also important to note that a sitting Prime Minister will always have the last say on whether a vote of confidence is moved on the day of the vote or not.

Right now, the government has the luxury of the full resources of the country and greater public support.

Support that will only build over time. Because the people of Papua New Guinea are sick of corruption, self-interest and greed.

Bryan Kramer is Papua New Guinea’s Police Minister. He is also one of the most transparent ministers on social media. In his rare spare time, he writes columns on issues for his Kramer Report web and Facebook pages. The Pacific Media Centre republishes his columns with permission.

Former Green Party MP Keith Locke says his contemporaries should stay out of the New Zealand cabinet in order to remain critical of Labour while also working constructively with it.

Any cabinet positions offered to the Greens by Labour would be a favour, not a necessity, and likely require the smaller party to soften its criticism.

The two parties are meeting again today to thrash out areas they can co-operate on in government.

• LISTEN TO RNZ MORNING REPORT: ‘It’s important that the Greens be an independent and critical voice working co-operatively and challenging from outside the Cabinet” – (Duration 5m:31s)

With Labour holding an election night majority, the Greens are not needed in a formal coalition arrangement.

The parties met twice last week in the prime minister’s office and will do so again later today, with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern expecting to complete talks this week.

Locke told Morning Report: “I think the Greens have to recognise that people voted for them because they like the Green vision and policies but also where possible to advance the progressive agenda with Labour.

“I think the best way forward on that… what we need really is a co-operation agreement whereby the Labour and the Greens work together to progress certain agreed issues and bills.

“The agreement could provide for easy Green access to Labour ministers, harmonious working relationships between the two parties on select committees, etc.”

He thought the Greens should avoid cabinet positions if possible.

“Because Labour has a complete majority, they would be granted as a favour not a necessity. The Green Party would not have any leverage and there would be an implicit understanding that the Green caucus would soften its criticism of the Labour government.”

The Greens should push for change using the Parliamentary positions they already have, he said.

“Take for example Ricardo Menendez-March fresh from Auckland Action Against Poverty. I think he could really provoke more change in the welfare area by speaking out, linking up with the lobby unions, using Parliament as a platform, and linking up with the [welfare] minister.

“If it is Carmel Sepuloni, in the past [she] hasn’t been able to achieve much change because she hasn’t been given the budget … but pressure from the Green Party inside and outside Parliament might have an effect.

“The Greens have produced many changes over the years.”

But he said it was a “completely new situation now” with a confidence and supply agreement “completely irrelevant”.

“The Greens in any case should reserve the right to abstain or vote against the budget,” he said.

“Change can be made and it’s important that the Greens be an independent and critical voice working co-operatively and challenging from outside the cabinet.”

This article is republished by the Pacific Media Centre under a partnership agreement with RNZ.

• Greens better off as independent, says Delahunty

New opposition National leader Todd Muller is backing his front bench, saying he chose the shadow cabinet line-up on merit and talent.

While three out of National’s top four ranked MPs are women, there are no Māori MPs on the front bench, or of any other ethnicity.

Māori Party founder Dame Tariana Turia told RNZ she was “gobsmacked” by National’s new line-up given her experience working closely with the party in government.

READ MORE: Todd Muller’s car crash of an interview on Q & A

“Here is a political party that I thought valued the Māori voice… It’s very disappointing to now see that in 2020 there is no Māori voice on the front bench,” she said.

However, Muller told RNZ Morning Report he went with who he believed were his best MPs.

“I looked at it through the lens of my shadow cabinet and I looked at it through the lens of the talent that I have at my disposal which is quite extraordinary in terms of my 55 MPs and the third thing I did, which is different to what has happened in the past, is rather than loading up the shadow cabinet with all the portfolios, I spread the critical and substantive portfolios across the whole team, including Dan Bidois for example who has Workplace Relations and Safety.

“When I put it (party list) forward I didn’t rank it and I also said this isn’t our final list ranking.”

Māori MPs in shadow cabinet
Muller pointed out that his shadow cabinet does contain Māori MPs.

“From my perspective the shadow cabinet is what counts,” he said.

“In that shadow cabinet I have Dr Shane Reti who I brought beside me when I won the leadership as someone who I rate highly and think is already a huge contributor to the National Party and the country and will be a substantive senior minister in my government, and of course Paula Bennett … then beyond that a caucus with Māori representation that is connected hugely in the Māori community.”

Dame Tariana also acknowledged the likes of Dr Reti, ranked 17th, and Harete Hipango, ranked 39th, and believes they deserve a promotion.

“One thing I know about politics – everything is about votes. And if they think that the Māori vote is not going to go their way, are they going to choose any Māori people to be in their top 10? Doesn’t look like it.”

There was also confusion at yesterday’s announcement when Finance spokesperson Paul Goldsmith was declared Māori by deputy leader Nikki Kaye.

Muller said he didn’t consider Goldsmith Māori when sorting out his front bench.

‘That was an error’
“That was an error and we admitted that yesterday,” he said.

“She (Nikki Kaye) obviously wasn’t 100 percent clear on his whakapapa. Mistakes happen and that was acknowledged at the time.

“Certainly from my perspective I am very comfortable with the team we have, I think it is remarkable talent.

“I think my shadow cabinet bests this government’s cabinet in terms of person for person contribution, capacity life experience, lived experience and the ability to help frame up with the wider team a recovery plan for this country that will have substance.”

Muller’s front bench was not only criticised by those outside his party but inside as well.

National list MP and Māori development spokesperson Jo Hayes publicly critiqued Muller’s front bench on Radio Waatea.

“This is not good. We need to remedy this or you need to front it and take it head on and say why. You need to give a better explanation,” she said.

Muller would not say whether he was happy with Hayes voicing her concerns but said he had a conversation with her last night about the issue.

“She was passionate and she obviously shared a view and we talked about it.”

Muller would not disclose if he told her not to speak about the issues in the future.

• This article is republished by the Pacific Media Centre under a partnership agreement with RNZ.
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Papua New Guinea’s political opposition has gone on the offensive, accusing Prime Minister Peter O’Neill’s government of attempting to delay and defeat the vote of no confidence motion outside Parliamentary process.

Senior opposition members delivered the vote of no confidence motion to the Speaker yesterday afternoon.

But there are serious concerns that the government is “tampering” with the process. The vote has been delayed until May 28.

READ MORE: Papua New Guinea’s leadership crisis

The opposition’s nominee for Prime Minister, Tari-Pori MP and former Finance Minister James Marape, was furious at the manner in which the Speaker ruled against an early resumption of Parliament.

Marape also told the news media that the government removed opposition MPs who were on a Parliamentary Private Members committee that decides on the validity of votes of no confidence motions.

“What has happened today is that you saw a ploy by Prime Minister Peter O’Neill’s government to sabotage the process of a vote of no confidence motion,” he said.

“They removed membership of the private members committee which had Hela Governor Phillip Undialu and Southern Highlands Governor William Powi.

“They put members on the committee who are pro-government. We are appealing to the Speaker that they must not stand against the will of the people.”

Opposition dismay
In Parliament, Speaker Job Pomat allowed a motion to adjourn the Haus to May 28, much to the dismay of the opposition which sought to have the next session on the week of May 15.

“What showed today was that the Prime Minister was not confident on the numbers on the government side.”

After Parliament rose, Speaker Pomat held his own news conference to explain parliamentary processes, saying he had received the vote of no confidence motion and that due process would have to be followed.

“Today I made rulings that I had to make. The rulings were based on votes. The numbers showed it. I want the people of Papua New Guinea to know that this is the process of democracy. I was not forced. It was my decision.”

In previous years, Speakers have faced the brunt of the opposition’s ire for making decisions seen to be in favour of the government side. Speaking in the that context, Pomat said the democratic process demanded that decisions followed parliamentary process.

The government plans to use period between now and May 28 to reorganise its numbers.

Prime Minister O’Neill said ministries would be allocated to new people to fill in vacancies.

In PNG politics, some of those ministries will be offered to coalition and opposition members to boost and maintain the government’s numbers.

This article is published in collaboration with EMTV News.

Twenty-one parties will contest 65 parliamentary seats and decide who governs Timor-Leste in national elections this Saturday.

In a population with a median age of just under 19 years and a voting age of 17, a fifth of Timor-Leste’s 750,000 registered voters will be participating for the first time. This is just one of the factors making the exact composition of the new Parliament, and the complexion of the government, hard to pick.

The current government was formed in extraordinary circumstances in early 2015, when former independence movement leader and prime minister Xanana Gusmão handed the prime ministership to an opposition Fretilin figure, Rui Araújo.

Best seen as a power-sharing executive rather than a formal government of national unity, this de facto “grand coalition” between Timor-Leste’s two largest parties – the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) and Fretilin – was a remarkable development. As recently as 2012, bitter tensions had existed between the two parties.

Power-sharing executives are not uncommon in the Pacific region, and generally award ministries to any parties winning a significant number of seats. They tend to facilitate political stability, but they can also reduce the accountability of government to Parliament by incorporating all significant parties into the executive government.

The fact that the smaller Partido Democrático, or PD, kept its ministries when its formal alliance with CNRT ended in 2015 suggests that this is an emerging informal feature of the East Timorese political system. Its dynamics are likely to influence the result of this month’s election.

Members will be elected under Timor-Leste’s proportional system, with voters selecting a party rather than individual candidates. Each party registers a list of 65 candidates in order of election, giving party leaders substantial power over candidates anxious to appear high on the list.

Progressive features
But the system also allows for progressive features, like the requirement that every third candidate be a woman, which has given Timor-Leste one of the highest percentages of female MPs in Asia-Pacific, at 38 percent.

The system isn’t strictly proportional. To get any of its candidates into Parliament, a party needs at least 4 percent of the vote, up from 3 percent in 2012, which effectively awards a bonus to parties that clear the hurdle.

The 4 percent might be a substantial barrier, but the large number of parties participating in the election attests to the relative ease of party registration and political participation. This feature reflects Timor-Leste’s relatively open society and pluralist culture, which saw it ranked as the most democratic country in Southeast Asia in The Economist’s 2016 Democracy Index.

The March election to the presidency of Fretilin’s Francisco “Lú-Olo” Guterres appeared to solidify the de facto accord between the major parties, with Gusmão’s endorsement helping Guterres draw some 60 percent of the national vote. The figure suggests that voters like the power-sharing arrangement between CNRT and Fretilin, which could continue beyond this election, though not necessarily in the same form.

Seeking to challenge the major parties, immediate past president Taur Matan Ruak and his new Partidu Libertasaun Popular (Popular Liberation Party – PLP) have focused on basic health and education spending rather than the megaproject-led development favoured by the government.

The PLP vocally opposes the unpopular life pensions for politicians, and has also raised allegations of patrimonialism and the growth of “money politics” in awarding government contracts.

While these issues have the clear potential to resonate in the electorate, the present government’s success in maintaining political stability and reducing political conflict within Timor-Leste’s political elite remains a major electoral asset.

History of conflict
In a country with a long history of conflict and memories of the 2006–07 political crisis, this factor alone undoubtedly means that CNRT and Fretilin will remain highly competitive. Irrespective of which major party comes first, their ability to coexist will remain central to political stability in Timor-Leste.

Nevertheless, the PLP and other smaller parties will take encouragement from recent polls suggesting that far fewer people are happy with the direction of the country than three years ago, including just 50 percent of those under 25, down from 80 percent in 2014. While anti-corruption campaigns have rarely swayed votes in the way spending programmes can, alternative development visions focused on basic development indicators may resonate in communities where infrastructure spending programmes have provided few benefits to date.

The parties’ electoral campaigns have played to their respective strengths. Xanana Gusmão’s personal legitimacy and popularity as the former resistance commander remains the cornerstone of the CNRT’s appeal. Though the party also includes extremely competent and senior ministers, including minister of state Agio Pereira, the CNRT has been criticised for being little more than a political vehicle for Gusmão and entirely reliant on his charismatic legitimacy – a perception reinforced when a new PM was not chosen from within the party, and again when the party decided not to field a presidential candidate.

In fact, posters featuring the wider CNRT team of ministers were dropped in the early weeks of the parliamentary campaign in favour of images of Gusmão alone. The current party slogan, “Vote for our future,” suggests continuity with earlier CNRT campaigns focused on rapid modernisation through government-led infrastructure spending, in line with Gusmão’s Strategic Development Plan.

For its part, Fretilin’s parliamentary campaign seems the most modern and professional, reflecting its status as the most disciplined and well-established of the East Timorese parties. With the slogan “For a more developed Timor-Leste,” Fretilin’s campaign materials promise improved outcomes in education and health using images of East Timorese making a “plus” sign with crossed fingers.

Because resistance credentials remain central to political fortunes in Timor-Leste, the loss of the party’s most senior Falintil veteran, Lú-Olo, who can’t campaign actively as president, has been notable.

Fretilin’s social media campaign has been at pains to counter suggestions that the current government represents a coalition with CNRT, reiterating their view that prime minister Araújo and other ministers participate in the current government as individuals. The party says that it remains committed to working with Gusmão after the election in the interests of stability, but that formalised cooperation with the CNRT more broadly is a different proposition.

Tough decisions necessary
It is by no means clear that Fretilin would again accept ministries if it finished in second place, though it acknowledges that tough decisions may need to be made in the interests of national stability.

For the PLP, the focus on Taur Matan Ruak as leader draws on two sources of symbolic strength: his legacy as the final commander of Falintil during the resistance era, and his more immediate presidential legacy as the closest thing to a national opposition leader from 2015. Ruak attacked the government in Parliament over accountability issues in early 2016, and vetoed the initial version of its budget; his relationship with Gusmão has yet to recover from this episode.

Supported by a host of younger Western-educated East Timorese from Dili’s intelligentsia, the PLP campaign represents a transitional point between an older mode of resistance legitimacy and generational change. Campaign rallies have focused on opposing discrimination, criticising the vast expenditure on “megaprojects,” and urging the greater focus on basic health, education and agriculture spending frequently recommended by Dili’s civil society organisations.

Reflecting its position at 12th place on the national ballot, the PLP has talked of using “Vitamin 12” to combat corruption. More controversially, it backs obligatory military service, though it argues this is best seen as a nation-building programme of public works projects and employment creation.

Unlike the large setpiece rallies of CNRT and Fretilin, which see supporters (known as “militants”) trucked in from elsewhere in the district, the PLP has focused on smaller rallies at the posto, or subdistrict, level. The smaller scale reflects its smaller budget, and the idea that it is running a grassroots campaign.

At rallies, the party points out that millions have been spent on the south-coast Tasi Mane petroleum project while the locals still have poor educational and health outcomes, and that – despite the brand new south-coast highway – the more important road from the southern town of Suai to Dili remains poor.

The PLP also campaigns against the new “unelected leaders” of the exclave of Oecusse – a clear dig at Fretilin’s leadership of the Special Social Market Economy Zone project in the Oecusse district, known as ZEESM.

Ruak has been joined onstage at rallies by some important characters, including well-known Falintil veteran “L4” and one of Fretilin’s early leaders, Abílio Araújo, who was later expelled from the party.

Different implications
PLP sources privately estimate winning between 10 and 20 seats, though local political commentators assess the likely range more modestly at between five and 15. Either way, these low and high estimates have very different implications. At the low end, the PLP would at least represent a welcome reinvigoration of parliamentary opposition. At the upper end, it would become a potential coalition partner.

Many have written off the PD, the CNRT’s former alliance partner, but what little polling exists in Timor suggests its support is alive and well – if somewhat diminished by the untimely death of leader Fernando “Lasama” De Araújo in 2015, and by the rise of the PLP, which draws on some of the same clandestine youth resistance networks and associated imagery.

The PD’s profile was boosted by the surprisingly sound performance of António da Conceição in the presidential campaign in March, in which he received the backing of the PLP. By contrast, the fourth party in the current parliament, Frente Mudansa, appears to be in considerable trouble after one of its key figures, Jorge Teme from the exclave of Oecusse, threw his lot in with the PLP.

With an outright majority for any one party unlikely, and in the absence of reliable polling, local commentators have been looking for reasons why the major-party vote shares from 2012 (CNRT 36 percent, Fretilin 30 percent) might change in 2017. Some point to growing popular dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, arguing that it opens space for the PLP to gain seats.

But it is also possible that new entrants like the PLP will take votes from smaller parties, which together received 20 percent in 2012, and were excluded by the hurdle requirements. Others argue that the political value of stability will prevail, and that there is a real chance of a “business as usual” result.

Reinforcing this sense, the election campaign has been very sedate, and even dull, with the most interesting question being how well the PLP can perform.

For Fretilin, positive comments by José Ramos-Horta about the role of Mari Alkatiri and Lú-Olo in stabilising East Timorese democracy in recent years have been welcomed by the party and highlighted in social media. More recently, Ramos-Horta has made the same comments about Gusmão, and has also encouraged Ruak to reconcile with him.

Fretilin’s stewardship
At the district level, the impact of Fretilin’s stewardship of the ZEESM project will be interesting to watch in Oecusse, as will the CNRT vote in the district of Covalima, where the massive Tasi Mane project is closely associated with Gusmão’s party.

It is too early to say whether the “build it and they will come” approach to attracting private investment has been successful. Certainly, the rapid development of new infrastructure has resulted in some high-quality bridges and roads, but it has also created resentment and displacement in local communities governed by older customary land use practices. These two district votes will therefore offer an interesting mini-analysis of the local reception of ambitious development plans.

Overall, the key question for July 22 is whether the CNRT and Fretilin can withstand the challenge from the former president’s PLP, and what sort of reconstituted cross-party government would follow. While the March presidential poll suggested a welcome reinvigoration of parliamentary opposition, it also raised the real possibility of a “business as usual” outcome in the parliamentary elections, at least in terms of seats.

The nature of any arrangement between the major parties may, however, change considerably. Meanwhile, the PLP and other parties have had another four months to campaign widely and expand their national vote. Sources inside the PLP expect to do well in Ruak’s home district of Baucau, where the personal vote is strong, in the populous Western town of Maliana, and in Oecusse.

With a new Fretilin president already installed, a key question will be the identity of a new prime minister in the event that CNRT and Fretilin return to some form of power-sharing arrangement. While it seems likely that a new PM would come from CNRT, no one in Dili seems sure who this might be.

Obvious candidates include Agio Pereira and state administration and justice minister Dionísio Babo-Soares. Certainly, it seems clear that Gusmão himself no longer desires the role, happy to direct the government from the Ministry of Planning and Strategic Development.

For its part – assuming it is unable to form government – the PLP will need to decide if it will accept ministries if they are on offer, and thus effectively join a power-sharing executive. Or will it act as an unfettered parliamentary opposition? The poor relations between Gusmão and Ruak suggest that ministries are not likely to be on offer immediately, though this might be somewhat more likely in the event that the biggest party is Fretilin, where relations are more cordial.

‘Hugging it out’
Either way, given the capacity of the East Timorese leadership to “hug it out” over apparently insoluble grievances, this issue may confront the PLP sometime in the life of the next government.

For East Timorese society in general, the 2017 elections represent an important transitional moment, with a full fifth of the electoral roll voting for the first time. These new voters don’t remember the Indonesian era, nor necessarily the political crisis of 2006–07.

The election has also seen the welcome rise of domestic political commentary for an international audience, written by an increasingly confident and well-informed East Timorese commentariat.

Despite these shifts, a generational transition of power from the “1975 generation” of leaders seems further away than five years ago. The last two years have seen a stronger reassertion from the older generation of leaders, including Gusmão and Alkatiri, of the need for patience among younger political leaders – a notable change in tone from the “transitional” rhetoric of 2012.

The promised transition to younger leaders at the Fretilin party congress didn’t occur, and Gusmão himself has remained firmly in control despite moving from centre stage. While the key roles of prime minister and chief justice are indeed filled by the younger generation, as the major parties point out, the 1975 generation remains the key power-holder behind the scenes.

For Australia, there appears to be little prospect of a change in direction in the foreign policy positions that unite the major East Timorese parties, including the determination to demarcate maritime boundaries between the neighbouring states. Both parties to the current Timor Sea conciliation process in The Hague privately report substantial progress in recent negotiations, though numerous difficult issues remain to be addressed.

On balance, the likelihood that Canberra will face a substantially different government in Dili after July 22 seems low.

Dr Michael Leach is professor of politics and international relations at Swinburne University of Technology, Victoria. This article is republished from Inside Story with permission of the author.

• Countdown to the Timor-Leste elections

The suspension was recommended by the Privileges Committee, which reported contravention of Standing Order 62 (4) (a) and (d) and the coalition has called for a review.

“The coalition considers the lengthy suspension to be a direct injustice to the 2966 voters who cast their vote for Ms Draunidalo in the 2014 elections, as well as further worsening the gender balance in Parliament,” said the chair of NGOCHR, Tara Chetty.

With Roko Tupou’s suspension, there are now just 7 women in Fiji’s 50-member Parliament – a ratio of only 14 percent women to 86 percent men, she said.

“We call on the Privileges Committee and government Members to reconsider this decision, which we feel is disproportionate and unnecessarily deprives voters of an engaged and active representative.”

It is the coalition’s understanding that the incident could more appropriately have been raised as a Point of Order during the debate on 2 June 2016, allowing the Speaker to immediately rule on the issue as outlined in the Standing Orders, Chetty said.

Instead, the matter was raised much later on the basis of an audio clip that was then referred to the Privileges Committee.

Democracy is about debate
“Removing a Member of Parliament in this way is likely to dissuade other Parliamentarians from thoroughly debating national issues.  Yet democracy is all about debate, a diversity of views, and vigorous but productive disagreement,” Chetty said.

“This incident is significant because it undermines the perception of Fiji’s democracy and our Parliamentary process.  It is not just about those who voted for Ms Draunidalo, but for all voters – will our issues be debated robustly in Parliament or is it going to become an increasingly hollow process?”

The NGO Coalition on Human Rights is a non-partisan group of civil society organisations that promote the recognition and realisation of human rights in Fiji.  The member organisations represent and work with diverse networks and communities from around the country.

• Fiji opposition figure barred from Parliament