The Pacific’s peak diplomatic bodies have signalled they are ready to engage with Papua New Guinea’s Autonomous Government of Bougainville as mediation begins on the delayed ratification of its successful 2019 independence referendum.

PNG and Bougainville’s leaders met in the capital Port Moresby this week with a moderator to start negotiations on the implementation of the UN-supervised Bougainville Peace Agreement and referendum.

Ahead of the talks, ABG’s President Ishmael Toroama moved to sideline a key sticking point over PNG parliamentary ratification of the vote, with the announcement last week that Bougainville would unilaterally declare independence on September 1, 2027.

• READ MORE: PNG and Bougainville to hold more talks on independence issue
• Other Bougainville reports

The region’s two leading intergovernmental organisations — Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) and Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) — have traditionally deferred to member state PNG on discussion of Bougainville independence as an internal matter.

But as a declaration of nationhood becomes increasingly likely and near, there has been a subtle shift.

“It’s their [PNG’s] prerogative but if this matter were raised formally, even by Bougainville themselves, we can start discussion on that,” PIF Secretary-General Baron Waqa told a press briefing at its headquarters in Fiji on Monday.

“Whatever happens, I think the issue would have to be decided by our leaders later this year,” he said of the annual PIF meeting to be held in Solomon Islands in September.

Marked peace deal
The last time the Pacific’s leaders included discussion of Bougainville in their official communique was in 2004 to mark the disarmament of the island under the peace deal.

Waqa said Bougainville had made no formal approach to PIF — a grouping of 18 Pacific states and territories — but it was closely monitoring developments on what could eventually lead to the creation of a new member state.

In 2024, Toroama told BenarNews he would be seeking observer status at the subregional MSG — grouping PNG, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and New Caledonia’s FLNKS — as Bougainville’s first diplomatic foray.

No application has been made yet but MSG acting Director-General Ilan Kiloe told BenarNews they were also keeping a close watch.

“Our rules and regulations require that we engage through PNG and we will take our cue from them,” Kiloe said, adding while the MSG respects the sovereignty of its members, “if requested, we will provide assistance” to Bougainville.

“The purpose and reason the MSG was established initially was to advance the collective interests of the Melanesian countries, in particular, to assist those yet to attain independence,” he said. “And to provide support towards their aim of becoming independent countries.”

The 2001 peace agreement ended more than a decade of bloody conflict  known as the Bougainville crisis, that resulted in the deaths of up to 15,000 people, and laid out a roadmap for disarmament and the referendum in 2019.

‘We need support’
Under the agreement, PNG retains responsibility for foreign affairs but allows for the ABG to engage externally for trade and with “regional organisations.”

“We need countries to support us, we need to talk to those countries [ahead of independence],” Toroama told BenarNews last September.

The referendum on independence was supported by 97.7 percent of Bougainvillians and the outcome was due to be ratified by PNG’s Parliament in 2020, but was deferred because of the covid-19 pandemic.

Discussions by the two parties since on whether a simple or two-thirds majority vote by parliamentarians was required has further delayed the process.

Toroama stood firm on the issue of ratification on the first day of discussions moderated by New Zealand’s Sir Jerry Mataparae, saying his people voted for independence and the talks were to define the “new relationship” between two independent states.

Last week, the 15 members of the Bougainville Leaders Independence Consultation Forum issued a statement declaring PNG had no authority to veto the referendum result and recommended September 1, 2027 as the declaration date.

“As far as I am concerned, the process of negotiating independence was concluded with the referendum,” Toroama said.

Implementation moderation
“My understanding is that this moderation is about reaching agreement on implementing the referendum result of independence.”

He told Marape “to take ownership and endorse independence in this 11th Parliament.”

PNG’s prime minister responded by praising the 25 years of peace “without a single bullet fired” but warned Bougainville was not ready for independence.

“Economic independence must precede political independence,” Marape said. “The long-term sustainability of Bougainville must be factored into these discussions.”

“About 95 percent of Bougainville’s budget is currently reliant on external support, including funding from the PNG government and international donors.”

Proposals to reopen Rio Tinto’s former Panguna gold and copper mine in Bougainville, that sparked its civil conflict, is a regular feature of debate about its economic future.

Marape also suggested people may be secretly harbouring weapons in breach of the peace agreement and called on the UN to clarify the outcome of the disarmament process it supervised.

“Headlines have come out that guns remain in Bougainville. United Nations, how come guns remain in Bougainville?” Marape asked on Monday.

“You need to tell me. This is something you know. I thought all guns were removed from Bougainville.”

PNG relies on aid
By comparison, PNG has heavily relied on foreign financial assistance since independence, currently receiving at about US$320 million (1.3 billion kina) a year in budgetary support from Australia, and suffers regular tribal violence and massacres involving firearms including assault rifles.

Bougainville Vice-President Patrick Nisira rejected Marape’s concerns about weapons, the Post-Courier newspaper reported.

“The usage of those guns, there is no evidence of that and if you look at the data on Bougainville where [there are] incidents of guns, it is actually very low,” he said.

Further talks are planned and are due to produce a report for the national Parliament by mid-2025, ahead of elections in Bougainville and PNG’s 50th anniversary celebrations in September.

Republished from BenarNews with permission.

So far, the New Zealand government has been remarkably silent about the Gaza-Israel conflict. Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta could be helping meditate for peace, Geoffrey Miller writes.

The growing Gaza crisis is testing Nanaia Mahuta’s recent assertion that New Zealand has an independent foreign policy.

The conflict between Israel and Hamas-controlled Gaza could be a golden opportunity for Mahuta to take the lead and forge her own path on the world stage.

New Zealand could be following Norway’s example and helping to broker a ceasefire and mediate wider peace attempts in the region.

• READ MORE: Ghahraman condemns ‘disappointing’ NZ response over attacks on Gaza
• Gaza death toll nears 200 amid surge of Israeli raids
• Palestinians in NZ stage rallies protesting against Israeli ‘brutality’
• Other Israel-Palestine conflict reports

But if anything, New Zealand’s response to the growing Israeli-Palestinian crisis to date appears to be slower and lower-key than that of its traditional English-speaking partners.

As of Monday morning, Mahuta’s public reaction appears to have been largely limited to a tweet and – in diplomatic terms – a fairly standard, 180-word written statement.

is deeply concerned about the deteriorating situation in Jerusalem and Gaza. We call for rapid de-escalation from and . We call on Israel to cease demolitions and evictions and for both sides to halt steps which undermine prospects for a two state solution.

— Nanaia Mahuta (@NanaiaMahuta) May 11, 2021

Mahuta has largely echoed the calls of others calling for de-escalation in the crisis.

Notably, she does not appear to have given any TV or radio interviews about the topic.

Late PM comments
For her part, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s first comments on the crisis appear to have been made in a scheduled weekly TV interview on Monday morning – nearly a full week after Israel began launching airstrikes on Gaza, in response to the firing of rockets into Israeli territory by Hamas.

Ardern, who talked of her “despair” at the conflict, seems to have been the last of the Five Eyes leaders to comment on the crisis publicly.

Overall, it appears the government would prefer not to become involved in a distant conflict that – to many – appears intractable and unsolvable.

Other NZ parliamentarians – with the notable exception of Green MPs, especially Golriz Ghahraman – appear to be taking much the same position. According to Hansard, the conflict did not even rate a mention in the New Zealand Parliament last week – in stark contrast to its Australian, British and Canadian counterparts, which all debated the issue.

Neither did New Zealand’s public statements differ greatly in tone or substance from those made by other Five Eyes countries.

Marise Payne, Australia’s Foreign Minister, called for de-escalation at a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington on Thursday. And Canada and the United Kingdom have both have issued similar statements at prime ministerial and foreign minister level.

Mediation role?
Other countries are trying to find a solution to the crisis, including Egypt, Qatar, Russia and the US.

Each country has its own potential advantages in mediation: Qatar and Egypt have traditionally held the ear of Hamas, for instance, while Israel is most likely to listen to its closest ally, the United States.

But there is plenty of scope for others to become involved.

For example, China last week worked with non-permanent United Nations Security Council (UNSC) members Tunisia and Norway in repeated attempts to try and find agreement on a joint statement on the crisis – efforts that were ultimately blocked by the United States.

New Zealand, too, could also play a more active role in brokering a solution.

Ardern’s heartfelt response to the conflict on Monday morning resembled that of a political commentator and observer, rather than of a participant in international affairs.

The conflict was tragic, but ultimately for others to solve – or at least that was the impression she gave.

More active earlier role
But New Zealand has played a more active role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict before. As Professor Robert Patman pointed out on Sunday, New Zealand co-sponsored UNSC Resolution 2334 in 2016 that condemned Israeli settlements in the West Bank. The move prompted Israel to recall its ambassador from Wellington and sever diplomatic ties with New Zealand for six months as a symbolic punishment.

Despite this history, New Zealand still has a good chance of being seen as an honest broker by all parties.

With most other smaller Western democracies falling under the EU’s umbrella, New Zealand is one of only a handful of countries with the credibility and neutrality to talk to both sides.

Palestinians in #NZ stage #rallies protesting against #Israeli ‘brutality’ #Palestine #PalestineBleeding #PalestineUnderAttack #NakbaDay2021 #AsiaPacificReport #humanrightshttps://t.co/ty6SF2AMkz pic.twitter.com/G4cELFe7dt

— David Robie (@DavidRobie) May 16, 2021

There are other helpful factors.

The fact that New Zealand has recently distanced itself from the Five Eyes alliance – and New Zealand’s overall good working relationship with China – would help to remove any impression of bias towards a particular side.

Moreover, New Zealand has designated only Hamas’s military wing as a terrorist entity, rather than the organisation as a whole – unlike the EU, US, Canada and Japan.

And Jacinda Ardern’s own personal star power and diplomatic clout – as shown again by her leadership of the Christchurch Call meeting at the weekend – would also help New Zealand win friends and influence people at the negotiating table.

Nordic template?
A template for New Zealand’s involvement could come from another small democracy – Norway. The Nordic country – also a ‘team of five million’ – has remained an active player in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process since the Oslo Accords were signed in 1993.

In the current crisis, Norway is again trying to help – its top diplomat Tor Wennesland is playing a leading role, under secondment to the UN.

Stop the fire immediately. We’re escalating towards a full scale war. Leaders on all sides have to take the responsibility of deescalation. The cost of war in Gaza is devastating & is being paid by ordinary people. UN is working w/ all sides to restore calm. Stop the violence now

— Tor Wennesland (@TWennesland) May 11, 2021

For New Zealand, former Labour leader David Shearer – who has extensive experience in the Middle East and once headed the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Jerusalem – could be the ideal equivalent appointee.
David Shearer with children in Koch

David Shearer could be an ideal choice for a mediation role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Geoffrey Miller writes. Photo: Supplied

Shearer is now back in New Zealand after finishing up at his job as the head of the UN mission in South Sudan – and he spoke at length about the Gaza conflict in a TV interview on Sunday.

Could New Zealand be the Norway of the South?

Absolutely – if it wants to be.

Geoffrey Miller is an international analyst at the Democracy Project. He has lived and travelled extensively in the Middle East and is a fluent Arabic speaker. This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.